Sentiment Analysis

Unveiling Hedge Funds: Topic Modeling and Sentiment Correlation with Fund Performance ArXiv ID: 2512.06620 “View on arXiv” Authors: Chang Liu Abstract The hedge fund industry presents significant challenges for investors due to its opacity and limited disclosure requirements. This pioneering study introduces two major innovations in financial text analysis. First, we apply topic modeling to hedge fund documents-an unexplored domain for automated text analysis-using a unique dataset of over 35,000 documents from 1,125 hedge fund managers. We compared three state-of-the-art methods: Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), Top2Vec, and BERTopic. Our findings reveal that LDA with 20 topics produces the most interpretable results for human users and demonstrates higher robustness in topic assignments when the number of topics varies, while Top2Vec shows superior classification performance. Second, we establish a novel quantitative framework linking document sentiment to fund performance, transforming qualitative information traditionally requiring expert interpretation into systematic investment signals. In sentiment analysis, contrary to expectations, the general-purpose DistilBERT outperforms the finance-specific FinBERT in generating sentiment scores, demonstrating superior adaptability to diverse linguistic patterns found in hedge fund documents that extend beyond specialized financial news text. Furthermore, sentiment scores derived using DistilBERT in combination with Top2Vec show stronger correlations with subsequent fund performance compared to other model combinations. These results demonstrate that automated topic modeling and sentiment analysis can effectively process hedge fund documents, providing investors with new data-driven decision support tools. ...

Financial Text Classification Based On rLoRA Finetuning On Qwen3-8B model ArXiv ID: 2512.00630 “View on arXiv” Authors: Zhiming Lian Abstract Financial text classification has increasingly become an important aspect in quantitative trading systems and related tasks, such as financial sentiment analysis and the classification of financial news. In this paper, we assess the performance of the large language model Qwen3-8B on both tasks. Qwen3-8B is a state-of-the-art model that exhibits strong instruction-following and multilingual capabilities, and is distinct from standard models, primarily because it is specifically optimized for efficient fine tuning and high performance on reasoning-based benchmarks, making it suitable for financial applications. To adapt this model, we apply Noisy Embedding Instruction Finetuning and based on our previous work, this method increases robustness by injecting controlled noise into the embedding layers during supervised adaptation. We improve efficiency further with Rank-stabilized Low-Rank Adaptation low-rank optimization approach, and FlashAttention, which allow for faster training with lower GPU memory. For both tasks, we benchmark Qwen3-8B against standard classical transformer models, such as T5, BERT, and RoBERTa, and large models at scale, such as LLaMA1-7B, LLaMA2-7B, and Baichuan2-7B. The findings reveal that Qwen3-8B consistently surpasses these baselines by obtaining better classification accuracy and needing fewer training epochs. The synergy of instruction-based fine-tuning and memory-efficient optimization methods suggests Qwen3-8B can potentially serve as a scalable, economical option for real-time financial NLP applications. Qwen3-8B provides a very promising base for advancing dynamic quantitative trading systems in the future. ...

A three-step machine learning approach to predict market bubbles with financial news ArXiv ID: 2510.16636 “View on arXiv” Authors: Abraham Atsiwo Abstract This study presents a three-step machine learning framework to predict bubbles in the S&P 500 stock market by combining financial news sentiment with macroeconomic indicators. Building on traditional econometric approaches, the proposed approach predicts bubble formation by integrating textual and quantitative data sources. In the first step, bubble periods in the S&P 500 index are identified using a right-tailed unit root test, a widely recognized real-time bubble detection method. The second step extracts sentiment features from large-scale financial news articles using natural language processing (NLP) techniques, which capture investors’ expectations and behavioral patterns. In the final step, ensemble learning methods are applied to predict bubble occurrences based on high sentiment-based and macroeconomic predictors. Model performance is evaluated through k-fold cross-validation and compared against benchmark machine learning algorithms. Empirical results indicate that the proposed three-step ensemble approach significantly improves predictive accuracy and robustness, providing valuable early warning insights for investors, regulators, and policymakers in mitigating systemic financial risks. ...

Sentiment and Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review of BERT and GARCH Applications during Geopolitical Crises ArXiv ID: 2510.16503 “View on arXiv” Authors: Domenica Mino, Cillian Williamson Abstract Artificial intelligence techniques have increasingly been applied to understand the complex relationship between public sentiment and financial market behaviour. This study explores the relationship between the sentiment of news related to the Russia-Ukraine war and the volatility of the stock market. A comprehensive dataset of news articles from major US platforms, published between January 1 and July 17, 2024, was analysed using a fine-tuned Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model adapted for financial language. We extracted sentiment scores and applied a Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, enhanced with a Student-t distribution to capture the heavy-tailed nature of financial returns data. The results reveal a statistically significant negative relationship between negative news sentiment and market stability, suggesting that pessimistic war coverage is associated with increased volatility in the S&P 500 index. This research demonstrates how artificial intelligence and natural language processing can be integrated with econometric modelling to assess real-time market dynamics, offering valuable tools for financial risk analysis during geopolitical crises. ...

Identifying and Quantifying Financial Bubbles with the Hyped Log-Periodic Power Law Model ArXiv ID: 2510.10878 “View on arXiv” Authors: Zheng Cao, Xingran Shao, Yuheng Yan, Helyette Geman Abstract We propose a novel model, the Hyped Log-Periodic Power Law Model (HLPPL), to the problem of quantifying and detecting financial bubbles, an ever-fascinating one for academics and practitioners alike. Bubble labels are generated using a Log-Periodic Power Law (LPPL) model, sentiment scores, and a hype index we introduced in previous research on NLP forecasting of stock return volatility. Using these tools, a dual-stream transformer model is trained with market data and machine learning methods, resulting in a time series of confidence scores as a Bubble Score. A distinctive feature of our framework is that it captures phases of extreme overpricing and underpricing within a unified structure. We achieve an average yield of 34.13 percentage annualized return when backtesting U.S. equities during the period 2018 to 2024, while the approach exhibits a remarkable generalization ability across industry sectors. Its conservative bias in predicting bubble periods minimizes false positives, a feature which is especially beneficial for market signaling and decision-making. Overall, this approach utilizes both theoretical and empirical advances for real-time positive and negative bubble identification and measurement with HLPPL signals. ...

Integrating Large Language Models and Reinforcement Learning for Sentiment-Driven Quantitative Trading ArXiv ID: 2510.10526 “View on arXiv” Authors: Wo Long, Wenxin Zeng, Xiaoyu Zhang, Ziyao Zhou Abstract This research develops a sentiment-driven quantitative trading system that leverages a large language model, FinGPT, for sentiment analysis, and explores a novel method for signal integration using a reinforcement learning algorithm, Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3). We compare the performance of strategies that integrate sentiment and technical signals using both a conventional rule-based approach and a reinforcement learning framework. The results suggest that sentiment signals generated by FinGPT offer value when combined with traditional technical indicators, and that reinforcement learning algorithm presents a promising approach for effectively integrating heterogeneous signals in dynamic trading environments. ...

Multi-Agent Analysis of Off-Exchange Public Information for Cryptocurrency Market Trend Prediction ArXiv ID: 2510.08268 “View on arXiv” Authors: Kairan Hong, Jinling Gan, Qiushi Tian, Yanglinxuan Guo, Rui Guo, Runnan Li Abstract Cryptocurrency markets present unique prediction challenges due to their extreme volatility, 24/7 operation, and hypersensitivity to news events, with existing approaches suffering from key information extraction and poor sideways market detection critical for risk management. We introduce a theoretically-grounded multi-agent cryptocurrency trend prediction framework that advances the state-of-the-art through three key innovations: (1) an information-preserving news analysis system with formal theoretical guarantees that systematically quantifies market impact, regulatory implications, volume dynamics, risk assessment, technical correlation, and temporal effects using large language models; (2) an adaptive volatility-conditional fusion mechanism with proven optimal properties that dynamically combines news sentiment and technical indicators based on market regime detection; (3) a distributed multi-agent coordination architecture with low communication complexity enabling real-time processing of heterogeneous data streams. Comprehensive experimental evaluation on Bitcoin across three prediction horizons demonstrates statistically significant improvements over state-of-the-art natural language processing baseline, establishing a new paradigm for financial machine learning with broad implications for quantitative trading and risk management systems. ...

Comparing LLMs for Sentiment Analysis in Financial Market News ArXiv ID: 2510.15929 “View on arXiv” Authors: Lucas Eduardo Pereira Teles, Carlos M. S. Figueiredo Abstract This article presents a comparative study of large language models (LLMs) in the task of sentiment analysis of financial market news. This work aims to analyze the performance difference of these models in this important natural language processing task within the context of finance. LLM models are compared with classical approaches, allowing for the quantification of the benefits of each tested model or approach. Results show that large language models outperform classical models in the vast majority of cases. ...

From Headlines to Holdings: Deep Learning for Smarter Portfolio Decisions ArXiv ID: 2509.24144 “View on arXiv” Authors: Yun Lin, Jiawei Lou, Jinghe Zhang Abstract Deep learning offers new tools for portfolio optimization. We present an end-to-end framework that directly learns portfolio weights by combining Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to model temporal patterns, Graph Attention Networks (GAT) to capture evolving inter-stock relationships, and sentiment analysis of financial news to reflect market psychology. Unlike prior approaches, our model unifies these elements in a single pipeline that produces daily allocations. It avoids the traditional two-step process of forecasting asset returns and then applying mean–variance optimization (MVO), a sequence that can introduce instability. We evaluate the framework on nine U.S. stocks spanning six sectors, chosen to balance sector diversity and news coverage. In this setting, the model delivers higher cumulative returns and Sharpe ratios than equal-weighted and CAPM-based MVO benchmarks. Although the stock universe is limited, the results underscore the value of integrating price, relational, and sentiment signals for portfolio management and suggest promising directions for scaling the approach to larger, more diverse asset sets. ...

Investor Sentiment and Market Movements: A Granger Causality Perspective ArXiv ID: 2510.15915 “View on arXiv” Authors: Tamoghna Mukherjee Abstract The stock market is heavily influenced by investor sentiment, which can drive buying or selling behavior. Sentiment analysis helps in gauging the overall sentiment of market participants towards a particular stock or the market as a whole. Positive sentiment often leads to increased buying activity and vice versa. Granger causality can be applied to ascertain whether changes in sentiment precede changes in stock prices.The study is focused on this aspect and tries to understand the relationship between close price index and sentiment score with the help of Granger causality inference. The study finds a positive response through hypothesis testing. ...