Sentiment Analysis

Deep Learning and NLP in Cryptocurrency Forecasting: Integrating Financial, Blockchain, and Social Media Data ArXiv ID: 2311.14759 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We introduce novel approaches to cryptocurrency price forecasting, leveraging Machine Learning (ML) and Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques, with a focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum. By analysing news and social media content, primarily from Twitter and Reddit, we assess the impact of public sentiment on cryptocurrency markets. A distinctive feature of our methodology is the application of the BART MNLI zero-shot classification model to detect bullish and bearish trends, significantly advancing beyond traditional sentiment analysis. Additionally, we systematically compare a range of pre-trained and fine-tuned deep learning NLP models against conventional dictionary-based sentiment analysis methods. Another key contribution of our work is the adoption of local extrema alongside daily price movements as predictive targets, reducing trading frequency and portfolio volatility. Our findings demonstrate that integrating textual data into cryptocurrency price forecasting not only improves forecasting accuracy but also consistently enhances the profitability and Sharpe ratio across various validation scenarios, particularly when applying deep learning NLP techniques. The entire codebase of our experiments is made available via an online repository: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/crypto-forecasting-public ...

Neural Network for valuing Bitcoin options under jump-diffusion and market sentiment model ArXiv ID: 2310.09622 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, in particular, are prone to wild swings resulting in frequent jumps in prices, making them historically popular for traders to speculate. A better understanding of these fluctuations can greatly benefit crypto investors by allowing them to make informed decisions. It is claimed in recent literature that Bitcoin price is influenced by sentiment about the Bitcoin system. Transaction, as well as the popularity, have shown positive evidence as potential drivers of Bitcoin price. This study considers a bivariate jump-diffusion model to describe Bitcoin price dynamics and the number of Google searches affecting the price, representing a sentiment indicator. We obtain a closed formula for the Bitcoin price and derive the Black-Scholes equation for Bitcoin options. We first solve the corresponding Bitcoin option partial differential equation for the pricing process by introducing artificial neural networks and incorporating multi-layer perceptron techniques. The prediction performance and the model validation using various high-volatile stocks were assessed. ...

Potential of ChatGPT in predicting stock market trends based on Twitter Sentiment Analysis ArXiv ID: 2311.06273 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The rise of ChatGPT has brought a notable shift to the AI sector, with its exceptional conversational skills and deep grasp of language. Recognizing its value across different areas, our study investigates ChatGPT’s capacity to predict stock market movements using only social media tweets and sentiment analysis. We aim to see if ChatGPT can tap into the vast sentiment data on platforms like Twitter to offer insightful predictions about stock trends. We focus on determining if a tweet has a positive, negative, or neutral effect on two big tech giants Microsoft and Google’s stock value. Our findings highlight a positive link between ChatGPT’s evaluations and the following days stock results for both tech companies. This research enriches our view on ChatGPT’s adaptability and emphasizes the growing importance of AI in shaping financial market forecasts. ...

FinGPT: Instruction Tuning Benchmark for Open-Source Large Language Models in Financial Datasets ArXiv ID: 2310.04793 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In the swiftly expanding domain of Natural Language Processing (NLP), the potential of GPT-based models for the financial sector is increasingly evident. However, the integration of these models with financial datasets presents challenges, notably in determining their adeptness and relevance. This paper introduces a distinctive approach anchored in the Instruction Tuning paradigm for open-source large language models, specifically adapted for financial contexts. Through this methodology, we capitalize on the interoperability of open-source models, ensuring a seamless and transparent integration. We begin by explaining the Instruction Tuning paradigm, highlighting its effectiveness for immediate integration. The paper presents a benchmarking scheme designed for end-to-end training and testing, employing a cost-effective progression. Firstly, we assess basic competencies and fundamental tasks, such as Named Entity Recognition (NER) and sentiment analysis to enhance specialization. Next, we delve into a comprehensive model, executing multi-task operations by amalgamating all instructional tunings to examine versatility. Finally, we explore the zero-shot capabilities by earmarking unseen tasks and incorporating novel datasets to understand adaptability in uncharted terrains. Such a paradigm fortifies the principles of openness and reproducibility, laying a robust foundation for future investigations in open-source financial large language models (FinLLMs). ...

Stock Market Sentiment Classification and Backtesting via Fine-tuned BERT ArXiv ID: 2309.11979 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract With the rapid development of big data and computing devices, low-latency automatic trading platforms based on real-time information acquisition have become the main components of the stock trading market, so the topic of quantitative trading has received widespread attention. And for non-strongly efficient trading markets, human emotions and expectations always dominate market trends and trading decisions. Therefore, this paper starts from the theory of emotion, taking East Money as an example, crawling user comment titles data from its corresponding stock bar and performing data cleaning. Subsequently, a natural language processing model BERT was constructed, and the BERT model was fine-tuned using existing annotated data sets. The experimental results show that the fine-tuned model has different degrees of performance improvement compared to the original model and the baseline model. Subsequently, based on the above model, the user comment data crawled is labeled with emotional polarity, and the obtained label information is combined with the Alpha191 model to participate in regression, and significant regression results are obtained. Subsequently, the regression model is used to predict the average price change for the next five days, and use it as a signal to guide automatic trading. The experimental results show that the incorporation of emotional factors increased the return rate by 73.8% compared to the baseline during the trading period, and by 32.41% compared to the original alpha191 model. Finally, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of incorporating emotional factors into quantitative trading, and give possible directions for further research in the future. ...

Desenvolvimento de modelo para predição de cotações de ação baseada em análise de sentimentos de tweets ArXiv ID: 2309.06538 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Training machine learning models for predicting stock market share prices is an active area of research since the automatization of trading such papers was available in real time. While most of the work in this field of research is done by training Neural networks based on past prices of stock shares, in this work, we use iFeel 2.0 platform to extract 19 sentiment features from posts obtained from microblog platform Twitter that mention the company Petrobras. Then, we used those features to train XBoot models to predict future stock prices for the referred company. Later, we simulated the trading of Petrobras’ shares based on the model’s outputs and determined the gain of R$88,82 (net) in a 250-day period when compared to a 100 random models’ average performance. ...

Media Moments and Corporate Connections: A Deep Learning Approach to Stock Movement Classification ArXiv ID: 2309.06559 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The financial industry poses great challenges with risk modeling and profit generation. These entities are intricately tied to the sophisticated prediction of stock movements. A stock forecaster must untangle the randomness and ever-changing behaviors of the stock market. Stock movements are influenced by a myriad of factors, including company history, performance, and economic-industry connections. However, there are other factors that aren’t traditionally included, such as social media and correlations between stocks. Social platforms such as Reddit, Facebook, and X (Twitter) create opportunities for niche communities to share their sentiment on financial assets. By aggregating these opinions from social media in various mediums such as posts, interviews, and news updates, we propose a more holistic approach to include these “media moments” within stock market movement prediction. We introduce a method that combines financial data, social media, and correlated stock relationships via a graph neural network in a hierarchical temporal fashion. Through numerous trials on current S&P 500 index data, with results showing an improvement in cumulative returns by 28%, we provide empirical evidence of our tool’s applicability for use in investment decisions. ...

Linking microblogging sentiments to stock price movement: An application of GPT-4 ArXiv ID: 2308.16771 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper investigates the potential improvement of the GPT-4 Language Learning Model (LLM) in comparison to BERT for modeling same-day daily stock price movements of Apple and Tesla in 2017, based on sentiment analysis of microblogging messages. We recorded daily adjusted closing prices and translated them into up-down movements. Sentiment for each day was extracted from messages on the Stocktwits platform using both LLMs. We develop a novel method to engineer a comprehensive prompt for contextual sentiment analysis which unlocks the true capabilities of modern LLM. This enables us to carefully retrieve sentiments, perceived advantages or disadvantages, and the relevance towards the analyzed company. Logistic regression is used to evaluate whether the extracted message contents reflect stock price movements. As a result, GPT-4 exhibited substantial accuracy, outperforming BERT in five out of six months and substantially exceeding a naive buy-and-hold strategy, reaching a peak accuracy of 71.47 % in May. The study also highlights the importance of prompt engineering in obtaining desired outputs from GPT-4’s contextual abilities. However, the costs of deploying GPT-4 and the need for fine-tuning prompts highlight some practical considerations for its use. ...

Predicting Financial Market Trends using Time Series Analysis and Natural Language Processing ArXiv ID: 2309.00136 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Forecasting financial market trends through time series analysis and natural language processing poses a complex and demanding undertaking, owing to the numerous variables that can influence stock prices. These variables encompass a spectrum of economic and political occurrences, as well as prevailing public attitudes. Recent research has indicated that the expression of public sentiments on social media platforms such as Twitter may have a noteworthy impact on the determination of stock prices. The objective of this study was to assess the viability of Twitter sentiments as a tool for predicting stock prices of major corporations such as Tesla, Apple. Our study has revealed a robust association between the emotions conveyed in tweets and fluctuations in stock prices. Our findings indicate that positivity, negativity, and subjectivity are the primary determinants of fluctuations in stock prices. The data was analyzed utilizing the Long-Short Term Memory neural network (LSTM) model, which is currently recognized as the leading methodology for predicting stock prices by incorporating Twitter sentiments and historical stock prices data. The models utilized in our study demonstrated a high degree of reliability and yielded precise outcomes for the designated corporations. In summary, this research emphasizes the significance of incorporating public opinions into the prediction of stock prices. The application of Time Series Analysis and Natural Language Processing methodologies can yield significant scientific findings regarding financial market patterns, thereby facilitating informed decision-making among investors. The results of our study indicate that the utilization of Twitter sentiments can serve as a potent instrument for forecasting stock prices, and ought to be factored in when formulating investment strategies. ...

Do We Price Happiness? Evidence from Korean Stock Market ArXiv ID: 2308.10039 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This study explores the potential of internet search volume data, specifically Google Trends, as an indicator for cross-sectional stock returns. Unlike previous studies, our research specifically investigates the search volume of the topic ‘happiness’ and its impact on stock returns in the aspect of risk pricing rather than as sentiment measurement. Empirical results indicate that this ‘happiness’ search exposure (HSE) can explain future returns, particularly for big and value firms. This suggests that HSE might be a reflection of a firm’s ability to produce goods or services that meet societal utility needs. Our findings have significant implications for institutional investors seeking to leverage HSE-based strategies for outperformance. Additionally, our research suggests that, when selected judiciously, some search topics on Google Trends can be related to risks that impact stock prices. ...