Sentiment Analysis

To the Moon: Analyzing Collective Trading Events on the Wings of Sentiment Analysis ArXiv ID: 2308.09968 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This research investigates the growing trend of retail investors participating in certain stocks by organizing themselves on social media platforms, particularly Reddit. Previous studies have highlighted a notable association between Reddit activity and the volatility of affected stocks. This study seeks to expand the analysis to Twitter, which is among the most impactful social media platforms. To achieve this, we collected relevant tweets and analyzed their sentiment to explore the correlation between Twitter activity, sentiment, and stock volatility. The results reveal a significant relationship between Twitter activity and stock volatility but a weak link between tweet sentiment and stock performance. In general, Twitter activity and sentiment appear to play a less critical role in these events than Reddit activity. These findings offer new theoretical insights into the impact of social media platforms on stock market dynamics, and they may practically assist investors and regulators in comprehending these phenomena better. ...

Effects of Daily News Sentiment on Stock Price Forecasting ArXiv ID: 2308.08549 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Predicting future prices of a stock is an arduous task to perform. However, incorporating additional elements can significantly improve our predictions, rather than relying solely on a stock’s historical price data to forecast its future price. Studies have demonstrated that investor sentiment, which is impacted by daily news about the company, can have a significant impact on stock price swings. There are numerous sources from which we can get this information, but they are cluttered with a lot of noise, making it difficult to accurately extract the sentiments from them. Hence the focus of our research is to design an efficient system to capture the sentiments from the news about the NITY50 stocks and investigate how much the financial news sentiment of these stocks are affecting their prices over a period of time. This paper presents a robust data collection and preprocessing framework to create a news database for a timeline of around 3.7 years, consisting of almost half a million news articles. We also capture the stock price information for this timeline and create multiple time series data, that include the sentiment scores from various sections of the article, calculated using different sentiment libraries. Based on this, we fit several LSTM models to forecast the stock prices, with and without using the sentiment scores as features and compare their performances. ...

Leveraging Deep Learning and Online Source Sentiment for Financial Portfolio Management ArXiv ID: 2309.16679 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Financial portfolio management describes the task of distributing funds and conducting trading operations on a set of financial assets, such as stocks, index funds, foreign exchange or cryptocurrencies, aiming to maximize the profit while minimizing the loss incurred by said operations. Deep Learning (DL) methods have been consistently excelling at various tasks and automated financial trading is one of the most complex one of those. This paper aims to provide insight into various DL methods for financial trading, under both the supervised and reinforcement learning schemes. At the same time, taking into consideration sentiment information regarding the traded assets, we discuss and demonstrate their usefulness through corresponding research studies. Finally, we discuss commonly found problems in training such financial agents and equip the reader with the necessary knowledge to avoid these problems and apply the discussed methods in practice. ...

Unveiling the Potential of Sentiment: Can Large Language Models Predict Chinese Stock Price Movements? ArXiv ID: 2306.14222 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has spurred discussions about their potential to enhance quantitative trading strategies. LLMs excel in analyzing sentiments about listed companies from financial news, providing critical insights for trading decisions. However, the performance of LLMs in this task varies substantially due to their inherent characteristics. This paper introduces a standardized experimental procedure for comprehensive evaluations. We detail the methodology using three distinct LLMs, each embodying a unique approach to performance enhancement, applied specifically to the task of sentiment factor extraction from large volumes of Chinese news summaries. Subsequently, we develop quantitative trading strategies using these sentiment factors and conduct back-tests in realistic scenarios. Our results will offer perspectives about the performances of Large Language Models applied to extracting sentiments from Chinese news texts. ...

Causality between Sentiment and Cryptocurrency Prices ArXiv ID: 2306.05803 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This study investigates the relationship between narratives conveyed through microblogging platforms, namely Twitter, and the value of crypto assets. Our study provides a unique technique to build narratives about cryptocurrency by combining topic modelling of short texts with sentiment analysis. First, we used an unsupervised machine learning algorithm to discover the latent topics within the massive and noisy textual data from Twitter, and then we revealed 4-5 cryptocurrency-related narratives, including financial investment, technological advancement related to crypto, financial and political regulations, crypto assets, and media coverage. In a number of situations, we noticed a strong link between our narratives and crypto prices. Our work connects the most recent innovation in economics, Narrative Economics, to a new area of study that combines topic modelling and sentiment analysis to relate consumer behaviour to narratives. ...

Financial sentiment analysis using FinBERT with application in predicting stock movement ArXiv ID: 2306.02136 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In this study, we integrate sentiment analysis within a financial framework by leveraging FinBERT, a fine-tuned BERT model specialized for financial text, to construct an advanced deep learning model based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our objective is to forecast financial market trends with greater accuracy. To evaluate our model’s predictive capabilities, we apply it to a comprehensive dataset of stock market news and perform a comparative analysis against standard BERT, standalone LSTM, and the traditional ARIMA models. Our findings indicate that incorporating sentiment analysis significantly enhances the model’s ability to anticipate market fluctuations. Furthermore, we propose a suite of optimization techniques aimed at refining the model’s performance, paving the way for more robust and reliable market prediction tools in the field of AI-driven finance. ...

Support for Stock Trend Prediction Using Transformers and Sentiment Analysis ArXiv ID: 2305.14368 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Stock trend analysis has been an influential time-series prediction topic due to its lucrative and inherently chaotic nature. Many models looking to accurately predict the trend of stocks have been based on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). However, due to the limitations of RNNs, such as gradient vanish and long-term dependencies being lost as sequence length increases, in this paper we develop a Transformer based model that uses technical stock data and sentiment analysis to conduct accurate stock trend prediction over long time windows. This paper also introduces a novel dataset containing daily technical stock data and top news headline data spanning almost three years. Stock prediction based solely on technical data can suffer from lag caused by the inability of stock indicators to effectively factor in breaking market news. The use of sentiment analysis on top headlines can help account for unforeseen shifts in market conditions caused by news coverage. We measure the performance of our model against RNNs over sequence lengths spanning 5 business days to 30 business days to mimic different length trading strategies. This reveals an improvement in directional accuracy over RNNs as sequence length is increased, with the largest improvement being close to 18.63% at 30 business days. ...