SHapley Additive ExPlanations (SHAP)

Interpretable Machine Learning for Macro Alpha: A News Sentiment Case Study ArXiv ID: 2505.16136 “View on arXiv” Authors: Yuke Zhang Abstract This study introduces an interpretable machine learning (ML) framework to extract macroeconomic alpha from global news sentiment. We process the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) Project’s worldwide news feed using FinBERT – a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) based model pretrained on finance-specific language – to construct daily sentiment indices incorporating mean tone, dispersion, and event impact. These indices drive an XGBoost classifier, benchmarked against logistic regression, to predict next-day returns for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and 10-year U.S. Treasury futures (ZN). Rigorous out-of-sample (OOS) backtesting (5-fold expanding-window cross-validation, OOS period: c. 2017-April 2025) demonstrates exceptional, cost-adjusted performance for the XGBoost strategy: Sharpe ratios achieve 5.87 (EUR/USD), 4.65 (USD/JPY), and 4.65 (Treasuries), with respective compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) exceeding 50% in Foreign Exchange (FX) and 22% in bonds. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) affirm that sentiment dispersion and article impact are key predictive features. Our findings establish that integrating domain-specific Natural Language Processing (NLP) with interpretable ML offers a potent and explainable source of macro alpha. ...

Explainable Automated Machine Learning for Credit Decisions: Enhancing Human Artificial Intelligence Collaboration in Financial Engineering ArXiv ID: 2402.03806 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper explores the integration of Explainable Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) in the realm of financial engineering, specifically focusing on its application in credit decision-making. The rapid evolution of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in finance has necessitated a balance between sophisticated algorithmic decision-making and the need for transparency in these systems. The focus is on how AutoML can streamline the development of robust machine learning models for credit scoring, while Explainable AI (XAI) methods, particularly SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), provide insights into the models’ decision-making processes. This study demonstrates how the combination of AutoML and XAI not only enhances the efficiency and accuracy of credit decisions but also fosters trust and collaboration between humans and AI systems. The findings underscore the potential of explainable AutoML in improving the transparency and accountability of AI-driven financial decisions, aligning with regulatory requirements and ethical considerations. ...

Explainable artificial intelligence model for identifying Market Value in Professional Soccer Players ArXiv ID: 2311.04599 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This study introduces an advanced machine learning method for predicting soccer players’ market values, combining ensemble models and the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) for interpretability. Utilizing data from about 12,000 players from Sofifa, the Boruta algorithm streamlined feature selection. The Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) model excelled in predictive accuracy, with an R-squared of 0.901 and a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 3,221,632.175. Player attributes in skills, fitness, and cognitive areas significantly influenced market value. These insights aid sports industry stakeholders in player valuation. However, the study has limitations, like underestimating superstar players’ values and needing larger datasets. Future research directions include enhancing the model’s applicability and exploring value prediction in various contexts. ...