Synthetic Data Generation

Quantum generative modeling for financial time series with temporal correlations ArXiv ID: 2507.22035 “View on arXiv” Authors: David Dechant, Eliot Schwander, Lucas van Drooge, Charles Moussa, Diego Garlaschelli, Vedran Dunjko, Jordi Tura Abstract Quantum generative adversarial networks (QGANs) have been investigated as a method for generating synthetic data with the goal of augmenting training data sets for neural networks. This is especially relevant for financial time series, since we only ever observe one realization of the process, namely the historical evolution of the market, which is further limited by data availability and the age of the market. However, for classical generative adversarial networks it has been shown that generated data may (often) not exhibit desired properties (also called stylized facts), such as matching a certain distribution or showing specific temporal correlations. Here, we investigate whether quantum correlations in quantum inspired models of QGANs can help in the generation of financial time series. We train QGANs, composed of a quantum generator and a classical discriminator, and investigate two approaches for simulating the quantum generator: a full simulation of the quantum circuits, and an approximate simulation using tensor network methods. We tested how the choice of hyperparameters, such as the circuit depth and bond dimensions, influenced the quality of the generated time series. The QGAN that we trained generate synthetic financial time series that not only match the target distribution but also exhibit the desired temporal correlations, with the quality of each property depending on the hyperparameters and simulation method. ...

Predicting Liquidity-Aware Bond Yields using Causal GANs and Deep Reinforcement Learning with LLM Evaluation ArXiv ID: 2502.17011 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Financial bond yield forecasting is challenging due to data scarcity, nonlinear macroeconomic dependencies, and evolving market conditions. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that leverages Causal Generative Adversarial Networks (CausalGANs) and Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) reinforcement learning (RL) to generate high-fidelity synthetic bond yield data for four major bond categories (AAA, BAA, US10Y, Junk). By incorporating 12 key macroeconomic variables, we ensure statistical fidelity by preserving essential market properties. To transform this market dependent synthetic data into actionable insights, we employ a finetuned Large Language Model (LLM) Qwen2.5-7B that generates trading signals (BUY/HOLD/SELL), risk assessments, and volatility projections. We use automated, human and LLM evaluations, all of which demonstrate that our framework improves forecasting performance over existing methods, with statistical validation via predictive accuracy, MAE evaluation(0.103%), profit/loss evaluation (60% profit rate), LLM evaluation (3.37/5) and expert assessments scoring 4.67 out of 5. The reinforcement learning-enhanced synthetic data generation achieves the least Mean Absolute Error of 0.103, demonstrating its effectiveness in replicating real-world bond market dynamics. We not only enhance data-driven trading strategies but also provides a scalable, high-fidelity synthetic financial data pipeline for risk & volatility management and investment decision-making. This work establishes a bridge between synthetic data generation, LLM driven financial forecasting, and language model evaluation, contributing to AI-driven financial decision-making. ...

Leveraging Generative Adversarial Networks for Addressing Data Imbalance in Financial Market Supervision ArXiv ID: 2412.15222 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This study explores the application of generative adversarial networks in financial market supervision, especially for solving the problem of data imbalance to improve the accuracy of risk prediction. Since financial market data are often imbalanced, especially high-risk events such as market manipulation and systemic risk occur less frequently, traditional models have difficulty effectively identifying these minority events. This study proposes to generate synthetic data with similar characteristics to these minority events through GAN to balance the dataset, thereby improving the prediction performance of the model in financial supervision. Experimental results show that compared with traditional oversampling and undersampling methods, the data generated by GAN has significant advantages in dealing with imbalance problems and improving the prediction accuracy of the model. This method has broad application potential in financial regulatory agencies such as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and the Federal Reserve. ...

Beyond Monte Carlo: Harnessing Diffusion Models to Simulate Financial Market Dynamics ArXiv ID: 2412.00036 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We propose a highly efficient and accurate methodology for generating synthetic financial market data using a diffusion model approach. The synthetic data produced by our methodology align closely with observed market data in several key aspects: (i) they pass the two-sample Cramer - von Mises test for portfolios of assets, and (ii) Q - Q plots demonstrate consistency across quantiles, including in the tails, between observed and generated market data. Moreover, the covariance matrices derived from a large set of synthetic market data exhibit significantly lower condition numbers compared to the estimated covariance matrices of the observed data. This property makes them suitable for use as regularized versions of the latter. For model training, we develop an efficient and fast algorithm based on numerical integration rather than Monte Carlo simulations. The methodology is tested on a large set of equity data. ...

Evaluating utility in synthetic banking microdata applications ArXiv ID: 2410.22519 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Financial regulators such as central banks collect vast amounts of data, but access to the resulting fine-grained banking microdata is severely restricted by banking secrecy laws. Recent developments have resulted in mechanisms that generate faithful synthetic data, but current evaluation frameworks lack a focus on the specific challenges of banking institutions and microdata. We develop a framework that considers the utility and privacy requirements of regulators, and apply this to financial usage indices, term deposit yield curves, and credit card transition matrices. Using the Central Bank of Paraguay’s data, we provide the first implementation of synthetic banking microdata using a central bank’s collected information, with the resulting synthetic datasets for all three domain applications being publicly available and featuring information not yet released in statistical disclosure. We find that applications less susceptible to post-processing information loss, which are based on frequency tables, are particularly suited for this approach, and that marginal-based inference mechanisms to outperform generative adversarial network models for these applications. Our results demonstrate that synthetic data generation is a promising privacy-enhancing technology for financial regulators seeking to complement their statistical disclosure, while highlighting the crucial role of evaluating such endeavors in terms of utility and privacy requirements. ...

KodeXv0.1: A Family of State-of-the-Art Financial Large Language Models ArXiv ID: 2409.13749 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Although powerful, current cutting-edge LLMs may not fulfil the needs of highly specialised sectors. We introduce KodeXv0.1, a family of large language models that outclass GPT-4 in financial question answering. We utilise the base variants of Llama 3.1 8B and 70B and adapt them to the financial domain through a custom training regime. To this end, we collect and process a large number of publicly available financial documents such as earnings calls and business reports. These are used to generate a high-quality, synthetic dataset consisting of Context-Question-Answer triplets which closely mirror real-world financial tasks. Using the train split of this dataset, we perform RAG-aware 4bit LoRA instruction tuning runs of Llama 3.1 base variants to produce KodeX-8Bv0.1 and KodeX-70Bv0.1. We then complete extensive model evaluations using FinanceBench, FinQABench and the withheld test split of our dataset. Our results show that KodeX-8Bv0.1 is more reliable in financial contexts than cutting-edge instruct models in the same parameter regime, surpassing them by up to 9.24%. In addition, it is even capable of outperforming state-of-the-art proprietary models such as GPT-4 by up to 7.07%. KodeX-70Bv0.1 represents a further improvement upon this, exceeding GPT-4’s performance on every tested benchmark. ...

Consumer Transactions Simulation through Generative Adversarial Networks ArXiv ID: 2408.03655 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In the rapidly evolving domain of large-scale retail data systems, envisioning and simulating future consumer transactions has become a crucial area of interest. It offers significant potential to fortify demand forecasting and fine-tune inventory management. This paper presents an innovative application of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) to generate synthetic retail transaction data, specifically focusing on a novel system architecture that combines consumer behavior modeling with stock-keeping unit (SKU) availability constraints to address real-world assortment optimization challenges. We diverge from conventional methodologies by integrating SKU data into our GAN architecture and using more sophisticated embedding methods (e.g., hyper-graphs). This design choice enables our system to generate not only simulated consumer purchase behaviors but also reflects the dynamic interplay between consumer behavior and SKU availability – an aspect often overlooked, among others, because of data scarcity in legacy retail simulation models. Our GAN model generates transactions under stock constraints, pioneering a resourceful experimental system with practical implications for real-world retail operation and strategy. Preliminary results demonstrate enhanced realism in simulated transactions measured by comparing generated items with real ones using methods employed earlier in related studies. This underscores the potential for more accurate predictive modeling. ...

Improved Data Generation for Enhanced Asset Allocation: A Synthetic Dataset Approach for the Fixed Income Universe ArXiv ID: 2311.16004 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We present a novel process for generating synthetic datasets tailored to assess asset allocation methods and construct portfolios within the fixed income universe. Our approach begins by enhancing the CorrGAN model to generate synthetic correlation matrices. Subsequently, we propose an Encoder-Decoder model that samples additional data conditioned on a given correlation matrix. The resulting synthetic dataset facilitates in-depth analyses of asset allocation methods across diverse asset universes. Additionally, we provide a case study that exemplifies the use of the synthetic dataset to improve portfolios constructed within a simulation-based asset allocation process. ...

FinDiff: Diffusion Models for Financial Tabular Data Generation ArXiv ID: 2309.01472 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The sharing of microdata, such as fund holdings and derivative instruments, by regulatory institutions presents a unique challenge due to strict data confidentiality and privacy regulations. These challenges often hinder the ability of both academics and practitioners to conduct collaborative research effectively. The emergence of generative models, particularly diffusion models, capable of synthesizing data mimicking the underlying distributions of real-world data presents a compelling solution. This work introduces ‘FinDiff’, a diffusion model designed to generate real-world financial tabular data for a variety of regulatory downstream tasks, for example economic scenario modeling, stress tests, and fraud detection. The model uses embedding encodings to model mixed modality financial data, comprising both categorical and numeric attributes. The performance of FinDiff in generating synthetic tabular financial data is evaluated against state-of-the-art baseline models using three real-world financial datasets (including two publicly available datasets and one proprietary dataset). Empirical results demonstrate that FinDiff excels in generating synthetic tabular financial data with high fidelity, privacy, and utility. ...

Realistic Synthetic Financial Transactions for Anti-Money Laundering Models ArXiv ID: 2306.16424 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract With the widespread digitization of finance and the increasing popularity of cryptocurrencies, the sophistication of fraud schemes devised by cybercriminals is growing. Money laundering – the movement of illicit funds to conceal their origins – can cross bank and national boundaries, producing complex transaction patterns. The UN estimates 2-5% of global GDP or $0.8 - $2.0 trillion dollars are laundered globally each year. Unfortunately, real data to train machine learning models to detect laundering is generally not available, and previous synthetic data generators have had significant shortcomings. A realistic, standardized, publicly-available benchmark is needed for comparing models and for the advancement of the area. To this end, this paper contributes a synthetic financial transaction dataset generator and a set of synthetically generated AML (Anti-Money Laundering) datasets. We have calibrated this agent-based generator to match real transactions as closely as possible and made the datasets public. We describe the generator in detail and demonstrate how the datasets generated can help compare different machine learning models in terms of their AML abilities. In a key way, using synthetic data in these comparisons can be even better than using real data: the ground truth labels are complete, whilst many laundering transactions in real data are never detected. ...