Time Series

Polyspectral Mean based Time Series Clustering of Indian Stock Market ArXiv ID: 2504.07021 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In this study, we employ k-means clustering algorithm of polyspectral means to analyze 49 stocks in the Indian stock market. We have used spectral and bispectral information obtained from the data, by using spectral and bispectral means with different weight functions that will give us varying insights into the temporal patterns of the stocks. In particular, the higher order polyspectral means can provide significantly more information than what we can gather from power spectra, and can also unveil nonlinear trends in a time series. Through rigorous analysis, we identify five distinctive clusters, uncovering nuanced market structures. Notably, one cluster emerges as that of a conglomerate powerhouse, featuring ADANI, BIRLA, TATA, and unexpectedly, government-owned bank SBI. Another cluster spotlights the IT sector with WIPRO and TCS, while a third combines private banks, government entities, and RELIANCE. The final cluster comprises publicly traded companies with dispersed ownership. Such clustering of stocks sheds light on intricate financial relationships within the stock market, providing valuable insights for investors and analysts navigating the dynamic landscape of the Indian stock market. ...

Collaborative Optimization in Financial Data Mining Through Deep Learning and ResNeXt ArXiv ID: 2412.17314 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This study proposes a multi-task learning framework based on ResNeXt, aiming to solve the problem of feature extraction and task collaborative optimization in financial data mining. Financial data usually has the complex characteristics of high dimensionality, nonlinearity, and time series, and is accompanied by potential correlations between multiple tasks, making it difficult for traditional methods to meet the needs of data mining. This study introduces the ResNeXt model into the multi-task learning framework and makes full use of its group convolution mechanism to achieve efficient extraction of local patterns and global features of financial data. At the same time, through the design of task sharing layers and dedicated layers, it is established between multiple related tasks. Deep collaborative optimization relationships. Through flexible multi-task loss weight design, the model can effectively balance the learning needs of different tasks and improve overall performance. Experiments are conducted on a real S&P 500 financial data set, verifying the significant advantages of the proposed framework in classification and regression tasks. The results indicate that, when compared to other conventional deep learning models, the proposed method delivers superior performance in terms of accuracy, F1 score, root mean square error, and other metrics, highlighting its outstanding effectiveness and robustness in handling complex financial data. This research provides an efficient and adaptable solution for financial data mining, and at the same time opens up a new research direction for the combination of multi-task learning and deep learning, which has important theoretical significance and practical application value. ...

Integrative Analysis of Financial Market Sentiment Using CNN and GRU for Risk Prediction and Alert Systems ArXiv ID: 2412.10199 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This document presents an in-depth examination of stock market sentiment through the integration of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), enabling precise risk alerts. The robust feature extraction capability of CNN is utilized to preprocess and analyze extensive network text data, identifying local features and patterns. The extracted feature sequences are then input into the GRU model to understand the progression of emotional states over time and their potential impact on future market sentiment and risk. This approach addresses the order dependence and long-term dependencies inherent in time series data, resulting in a detailed analysis of stock market sentiment and effective early warnings of future risks. ...

A Stock Price Prediction Approach Based on Time Series Decomposition and Multi-Scale CNN using OHLCT Images ArXiv ID: 2410.19291 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Recently, deep learning in stock prediction has become an important branch. Image-based methods show potential by capturing complex visual patterns and spatial correlations, offering advantages in interpretability over time series models. However, image-based approaches are more prone to overfitting, hindering robust predictive performance. To improve accuracy, this paper proposes a novel method, named Sequence-based Multi-scale Fusion Regression Convolutional Neural Network (SMSFR-CNN), for predicting stock price movements in the China A-share market. By utilizing CNN to learn sequential features and combining them with image features, we improve the accuracy of stock trend prediction on the A-share market stock dataset. This approach reduces the search space for image features, stabilizes, and accelerates the training process. Extensive comparative experiments on 4,454 A-share stocks show that the model achieves a 61.15% positive predictive value and a 63.37% negative predictive value for the next 5 days, resulting in a total profit of 165.09%. ...

Blending gradient boosted trees and neural networks for point and probabilistic forecasting of hierarchical time series ArXiv ID: 2310.13029 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In this paper we tackle the problem of point and probabilistic forecasting by describing a blending methodology of machine learning models that belong to gradient boosted trees and neural networks families. These principles were successfully applied in the recent M5 Competition on both Accuracy and Uncertainty tracks. The keypoints of our methodology are: a) transform the task to regression on sales for a single day b) information rich feature engineering c) create a diverse set of state-of-the-art machine learning models and d) carefully construct validation sets for model tuning. We argue that the diversity of the machine learning models along with the careful selection of validation examples, where the most important ingredients for the effectiveness of our approach. Although forecasting data had an inherent hierarchy structure (12 levels), none of our proposed solutions exploited that hierarchical scheme. Using the proposed methodology, our team was ranked within the gold medal range in both Accuracy and the Uncertainty track. Inference code along with already trained models are available at https://github.com/IoannisNasios/M5_Uncertainty_3rd_place ...

Sig-Splines: universal approximation and convex calibration of time series generative models ArXiv ID: 2307.09767 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We propose a novel generative model for multivariate discrete-time time series data. Drawing inspiration from the construction of neural spline flows, our algorithm incorporates linear transformations and the signature transform as a seamless substitution for traditional neural networks. This approach enables us to achieve not only the universality property inherent in neural networks but also introduces convexity in the model’s parameters. ...