VWAP

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Optimum Order Execution: Mitigating Risk and Maximizing Returns ArXiv ID: 2601.04896 “View on arXiv” Authors: Khabbab Zakaria, Jayapaulraj Jerinsh, Andreas Maier, Patrick Krauss, Stefano Pasquali, Dhagash Mehta Abstract Optimal Order Execution is a well-established problem in finance that pertains to the flawless execution of a trade (buy or sell) for a given volume within a specified time frame. This problem revolves around optimizing returns while minimizing risk, yet recent research predominantly focuses on addressing one aspect of this challenge. In this paper, we introduce an innovative approach to Optimal Order Execution within the US market, leveraging Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to effectively address this optimization problem holistically. Our study assesses the performance of our model in comparison to two widely employed execution strategies: Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and Time Weighted Average Price (TWAP). Our experimental findings clearly demonstrate that our DRL-based approach outperforms both VWAP and TWAP in terms of return on investment and risk management. The model’s ability to adapt dynamically to market conditions, even during periods of market stress, underscores its promise as a robust solution. ...

IVE: Enhanced Probabilistic Forecasting of Intraday Volume Ratio with Transformers ArXiv ID: 2411.10956 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper presents a new approach to volume ratio prediction in financial markets, specifically targeting the execution of Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) strategies. Recognizing the importance of accurate volume profile forecasting, our research leverages the Transformer architecture to predict intraday volume ratio at a one-minute scale. We diverge from prior models that use log-transformed volume or turnover rates, instead opting for a prediction model that accounts for the intraday volume ratio’s high variability, stabilized via log-normal transformation. Our input data incorporates not only the statistical properties of volume but also external volume-related features, absolute time information, and stock-specific characteristics to enhance prediction accuracy. The model structure includes an encoder-decoder Transformer architecture with a distribution head for greedy sampling, optimizing performance on high-liquidity stocks across both Korean and American markets. We extend the capabilities of our model beyond point prediction by introducing probabilistic forecasting that captures the mean and standard deviation of volume ratios, enabling the anticipation of significant intraday volume spikes. Furthermore, an agent with a simple trading logic demonstrates the practical application of our model through live trading tests in the Korean market, outperforming VWAP benchmarks over a period of two and a half months. Our findings underscore the potential of Transformer-based probabilistic models for volume ratio prediction and pave the way for future research advancements in this domain. ...