Zero-Shot Learning

Re(Visiting) Time Series Foundation Models in Finance ArXiv ID: 2511.18578 “View on arXiv” Authors: Eghbal Rahimikia, Hao Ni, Weiguan Wang Abstract Financial time series forecasting is central to trading, portfolio optimization, and risk management, yet it remains challenging due to noisy, non-stationary, and heterogeneous data. Recent advances in time series foundation models (TSFMs), inspired by large language models, offer a new paradigm for learning generalizable temporal representations from large and diverse datasets. This paper presents the first comprehensive empirical study of TSFMs in global financial markets. Using a large-scale dataset of daily excess returns across diverse markets, we evaluate zero-shot inference, fine-tuning, and pre-training from scratch against strong benchmark models. We find that off-the-shelf pre-trained TSFMs perform poorly in zero-shot and fine-tuning settings, whereas models pre-trained from scratch on financial data achieve substantial forecasting and economic improvements, underscoring the value of domain-specific adaptation. Increasing the dataset size, incorporating synthetic data augmentation, and applying hyperparameter tuning further enhance performance. ...

FinCast: A Foundation Model for Financial Time-Series Forecasting ArXiv ID: 2508.19609 “View on arXiv” Authors: Zhuohang Zhu, Haodong Chen, Qiang Qu, Vera Chung Abstract Financial time-series forecasting is critical for maintaining economic stability, guiding informed policymaking, and promoting sustainable investment practices. However, it remains challenging due to various underlying pattern shifts. These shifts arise primarily from three sources: temporal non-stationarity (distribution changes over time), multi-domain diversity (distinct patterns across financial domains such as stocks, commodities, and futures), and varying temporal resolutions (patterns differing across per-second, hourly, daily, or weekly indicators). While recent deep learning methods attempt to address these complexities, they frequently suffer from overfitting and typically require extensive domain-specific fine-tuning. To overcome these limitations, we introduce FinCast, the first foundation model specifically designed for financial time-series forecasting, trained on large-scale financial datasets. Remarkably, FinCast exhibits robust zero-shot performance, effectively capturing diverse patterns without domain-specific fine-tuning. Comprehensive empirical and qualitative evaluations demonstrate that FinCast surpasses existing state-of-the-art methods, highlighting its strong generalization capabilities. ...

Temporal Relational Reasoning of Large Language Models for Detecting Stock Portfolio Crashes ArXiv ID: 2410.17266 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Stock portfolios are often exposed to rare consequential events (e.g., 2007 global financial crisis, 2020 COVID-19 stock market crash), as they do not have enough historical information to learn from. Large Language Models (LLMs) now present a possible tool to tackle this problem, as they can generalize across their large corpus of training data and perform zero-shot reasoning on new events, allowing them to detect possible portfolio crash events without requiring specific training data. However, detecting portfolio crashes is a complex problem that requires more than reasoning abilities. Investors need to dynamically process the impact of each new piece of information found in news articles, analyze the relational network of impacts across different events and portfolio stocks, as well as understand the temporal context between impacts across time-steps, in order to obtain the aggregated impact on the target portfolio. In this work, we propose an algorithmic framework named Temporal Relational Reasoning (TRR). It seeks to emulate the spectrum of human cognitive capabilities used for complex problem-solving, which include brainstorming, memory, attention and reasoning. Through extensive experiments, we show that TRR is able to outperform state-of-the-art techniques on detecting stock portfolio crashes, and demonstrate how each of the proposed components help to contribute to its performance through an ablation study. Additionally, we further explore the possible applications of TRR by extending it to other related complex problems, such as the detection of possible global crisis events in Macroeconomics. ...

Open-FinLLMs: Open Multimodal Large Language Models for Financial Applications ArXiv ID: 2408.11878 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Financial LLMs hold promise for advancing financial tasks and domain-specific applications. However, they are limited by scarce corpora, weak multimodal capabilities, and narrow evaluations, making them less suited for real-world application. To address this, we introduce \textit{“Open-FinLLMs”}, the first open-source multimodal financial LLMs designed to handle diverse tasks across text, tabular, time-series, and chart data, excelling in zero-shot, few-shot, and fine-tuning settings. The suite includes FinLLaMA, pre-trained on a comprehensive 52-billion-token corpus; FinLLaMA-Instruct, fine-tuned with 573K financial instructions; and FinLLaVA, enhanced with 1.43M multimodal tuning pairs for strong cross-modal reasoning. We comprehensively evaluate Open-FinLLMs across 14 financial tasks, 30 datasets, and 4 multimodal tasks in zero-shot, few-shot, and supervised fine-tuning settings, introducing two new multimodal evaluation datasets. Our results show that Open-FinLLMs outperforms afvanced financial and general LLMs such as GPT-4, across financial NLP, decision-making, and multi-modal tasks, highlighting their potential to tackle real-world challenges. To foster innovation and collaboration across academia and industry, we release all codes (https://anonymous.4open.science/r/PIXIU2-0D70/B1D7/LICENSE) and models under OSI-approved licenses. ...

FinGPT: Instruction Tuning Benchmark for Open-Source Large Language Models in Financial Datasets ArXiv ID: 2310.04793 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In the swiftly expanding domain of Natural Language Processing (NLP), the potential of GPT-based models for the financial sector is increasingly evident. However, the integration of these models with financial datasets presents challenges, notably in determining their adeptness and relevance. This paper introduces a distinctive approach anchored in the Instruction Tuning paradigm for open-source large language models, specifically adapted for financial contexts. Through this methodology, we capitalize on the interoperability of open-source models, ensuring a seamless and transparent integration. We begin by explaining the Instruction Tuning paradigm, highlighting its effectiveness for immediate integration. The paper presents a benchmarking scheme designed for end-to-end training and testing, employing a cost-effective progression. Firstly, we assess basic competencies and fundamental tasks, such as Named Entity Recognition (NER) and sentiment analysis to enhance specialization. Next, we delve into a comprehensive model, executing multi-task operations by amalgamating all instructional tunings to examine versatility. Finally, we explore the zero-shot capabilities by earmarking unseen tasks and incorporating novel datasets to understand adaptability in uncharted terrains. Such a paradigm fortifies the principles of openness and reproducibility, laying a robust foundation for future investigations in open-source financial large language models (FinLLMs). ...