Crypto Markets & DeFi

A modular leveraged event-market protocol can contain individually correct contracts for risk approval, positions, debt, settlement evidence, credit pools, junior backstops, reserves, liquidation, and governance while still lacking one authoritative financial execution path. This paper develops a ca

Hybrid on-chain financial protocols are frequently evaluated with evidence that is individually useful but collectively insufficient: a unit test, transaction receipt, screenshot, service response, or several matching hashes may be presented as proof of a complete workflow even when the layers share

This paper introduces oracle-parametrized automated market makers (OP-AMMs), i.e., automated market makers whose quoted price depends jointly on the pool reserves and an external oracle price. In doing so, we extend the information-agnostic AMM framework to settings, such as tokenized securities, fo

We study Arbitrum’s Express Lane Auction (ELA), an ahead-of-time second-price auction that grants the winner an exclusive latency advantage for one minute. Building on a single-round model with risk-averse bidders, we propose a hypothesis that the value of priority access is discounted relative to r

Autodeleveraging (ADL) is a last-resort loss socialization mechanism for perpetual futures venues. It is triggered when solvency-preserving liquidations fail. Despite the dominance of perpetual futures in the crypto derivatives market, with over $60 trillion of volume in 2024, there has been no form

Bitcoin operates as a macroeconomic paradox: it combines a strictly predetermined, inelastic monetary issuance schedule with a stochastic, highly elastic demand for scarce block space. This paper empirically validates the Endogenous Constraint Hypothesis, positing that protocol-level throughput limi

Forecasting cryptocurrency prices is hindered by extreme volatility and a methodological dilemma between information-scarce univariate models and noise-prone full-multivariate models. This paper investigates a partial-multivariate approach to balance this trade-off, hypothesizing that a strategic su

This paper presents a comprehensive study on the empirical dynamics of Uniswap v3 liquidity, which we model as a time-tick surface, $L_t(x)$. Using a combination of functional principal component analysis (FPCA) and dynamic factor methods, we analyze three distinct pools over multiple sample periods

Passive liquidity providers (LPs) in automated market makers (AMMs) face losses due to adverse selection (LVR), which static trading fees often fail to offset in practice. We study the key determinants of LP profitability in a dynamic reduced-form model where an AMM operates in parallel with a centr

Although modern blockchains almost universally produce blocks at fixed intervals, existing models still lack an analytical formula for the loss-versus-rebalancing (LVR) incurred by Automated Market Makers (AMMs) liquidity providers in this setting. Leveraging tools from random walk theory, we derive

This paper applies deep reinforcement learning (DRL) to optimize liquidity provisioning in Uniswap v3, a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol implementing an automated market maker (AMM) model with concentrated liquidity. We model the liquidity provision task as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and

In this paper we develop a novel hidden Markov graphical model to investigate time-varying interconnectedness between different financial markets. To identify conditional correlation structures under varying market conditions and accommodate stylized facts embedded in financial time series, we rely

The Lightning Network (LN) has emerged as a second-layer solution to Bitcoin’s scalability challenges. The rise of Payment Channel Networks (PCNs) and their specific mechanisms incentivize individuals to join the network for profit-making opportunities. According to the latest statistics, the total

We study the loan contracts offered by decentralised loan protocols (DLPs) through the lens of financial derivatives. DLPs, which effectively are clearinghouses, facilitate transactions between option buyers (i.e. borrowers) and option sellers (i.e. lenders). The loan-to-value at which the contract

The paper analyzes the cryptocurrency ecosystem at both the aggregate and individual levels to understand the factors that impact future volatility. The study uses high-frequency panel data from 2020 to 2022 to examine the relationship between several market volatility drivers, such as daily leverag

This research paper introduces innovative approaches for multivariate time series forecasting based on different variations of the combined regression strategy. We use specific data preprocessing techniques which makes a radical change in the behaviour of prediction. We compare the performance of th

We propose a novel approach to marked Hawkes kernel inference which we name the moment-based neural Hawkes estimation method. Hawkes processes are fully characterized by their first and second order statistics through a Fredholm integral equation of the second kind. Using recent advances in solving

A non-fungible token (NFT) market is a new trading invention based on the blockchain technology which parallels the cryptocurrency market. In the present work we study capitalization, floor price, the number of transactions, the inter-transaction times, and the transaction volume value of a few sele

This study investigates the influence of monetary policy and monetary policy uncertainties on Bitcoin returns, utilizing monthly data of BTC, and MPU from July 2010 to August 2023, and employing the Markov Switching Means VAR (MSM-VAR) method. The findings reveal that Bitcoin returns can be categori

Developing a generative model of realistic order flow in financial markets is a challenging open problem, with numerous applications for market participants. Addressing this, we propose the first end-to-end autoregressive generative model that generates tokenized limit order book (LOB) messages. The