Crypto Markets & DeFi

Identifying the structural dependence between the cryptocurrencies and predicting market trend are fundamental for effective portfolio management in cryptocurrency trading. In this paper, we present a unified Bayesian framework based on potential field theory and Gaussian Process to characterize the

Automated market makers (AMMs) are a new prototype of decentralised exchanges which are revolutionising market interactions. The majority of AMMs are constant product markets (CPMs) where exchange rates are set by a trading function. This work studies optimal trading and statistical arbitrage in CPM

We are interested in the nonparametric estimation of the probability density of price returns, using the kernel approach. The output of the method heavily relies on the selection of a bandwidth parameter. Many selection methods have been proposed in the statistical literature. We put forward an alte

The paper proposes and implements a methodology to fit a seven-parameter Generalized Tempered Stable (GTS) distribution to financial data. The nonexistence of the mathematical expression of the GTS probability density function makes the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) inadequate for providing pa

This paper presents the results of a comprehensive empirical study of losses to arbitrageurs (following the formalization of loss-versus-rebalancing by [“Milionis et al., 2022”]) incurred by liquidity providers on automated market makers (AMMs). We show that those losses exceed the fees earned by li

We introduce the Aggregated Systemic Risk Index (ASRI), comprising four weighted sub-indices: Stablecoin Concentration Risk (30%), DeFi Liquidity Risk (25%), Contagion Risk (25%), and Regulatory Opacity Risk (20%). Using data from DeFi Llama, Federal Reserve FRED, and on-chain analytics, we validate

EIP-4844 gave Ethereum rollups a separate fee dimension for data, governed by a multiplicative update rule that targets three ``blobs’’ per block. Whether this target is reached depends on how many independent, self-interested rollups choose to post data, a question that closed-form models address o

Anti-money laundering (AML) systems are important for protecting the global economy. However, conventional rule-based methods rely on domain knowledge, leading to suboptimal accuracy and a lack of scalability. Graph neural networks (GNNs) for digraphs (directed graphs) can be applied to transaction

Algorithmic stablecoins promise decentralized monetary stability by maintaining a target peg through programmatic reserve management. Yet, their reserve controllers remain vulnerable to regime-blind optimization, calibrating risk parameters on fair-weather data while ignoring tail events that precip

We study how the 2024 U.S. presidential election, viewed as a major political risk event, affected cryptocurrency markets by distinguishing human-driven peer-to-peer stablecoin transactions from automated algorithmic activity. Using structural break analysis, we find that human-driven Ethereum Reque

Cryptocurrency markets are characterized by extreme volatility, making accurate forecasts essential for effective risk management and informed trading strategies. Traditional deterministic (point) forecasting methods are inadequate for capturing the full spectrum of potential volatility outcomes, un

The rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) has created a growing demand for accurate yield and performance forecasting to guide liquidity allocation strategies. In this study, we benchmark six models, XGBoost, Random Forest, LSTM, Transformer, quantum neural networks (QNN), and quantum support vector

This paper analyzes realized return behavior across a broad set of crypto assets by estimating heterogeneous exposures to idiosyncratic and systematic risk. A key challenge arises from the latent nature of broader economy-wide risk sources: macro-financial proxies are unavailable at high-frequencies

The paper explores the use of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) in stock market trading, focusing on two algorithms: Double Deep Q-Network (DDQN) and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and compares them with Buy and Hold benchmark. It evaluates these algorithms across three currency pairs, the S&P 5

The article investigates the usage of Informer architecture for building automated trading strategies for high frequency Bitcoin data. Three strategies using Informer model with different loss functions: Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Generalized Mean Absolute Directional Loss (GMADL) and Quantile

Macroscopic properties of equity markets affect the performance of active equity strategies but many are not adequately captured by conventional models of financial mathematics and econometrics. Using the CRSP Database of the US equity market, we study empirically several macroscopic properties defi

Existing studies on crypto wash trading often use indirect statistical methods or leaked private data, both with inherent limitations. This paper leverages public on-chain NFT data for a more direct and granular estimation. Analyzing three major exchanges, we find that ~38% (30-40%) of trades and ~6

Perpetual futures are the most popular cryptocurrency derivatives. Perpetuals offer leveraged exposure to their underlying without rollover or direct ownership. Unlike fixed-maturity futures, perpetuals are not guaranteed to converge to the spot price. To minimize the gap between perpetual and spot

Dynamic-weight AMMs (aka Temporal Function Market Makers, TFMMs) implement algorithmic asset allocation, analogous to index or smart beta funds, by continuously updating pools’ weights. A strategy updates target weights over time, and arbitrageurs trade the pool back toward those weights. This creat

We investigate whether cryptocurrency markets differentiate between infrastructure failures and regulatory enforcement at the return level, complementing a companion conditional variance analysis that finds 5.7 times larger volatility impacts from infrastructure events (p = 0.0008). Using event-leve