Fixed income is where quantitative finance’s modeling tradition runs deepest and data runs thinnest. This hub covers term-structure models (affine, HJM-lineage, and their ML successors), yield-curve forecasting, bond risk premia, and credit — spread dynamics, default modeling, and corporate bond market structure.
Two things distinguish strong papers here. First, honest treatment of the small-sample problem: there are only a handful of independent interest-rate cycles in any dataset, so out-of-sample claims rest on far less evidence than equity research enjoys, and papers that acknowledge regime dependence (pre/post-2008 zero-rate era, the 2022 repricing) age better. Second, attention to market plumbing — corporate bond research that ignores dealer intermediation costs and stale quotes produces backtests no desk can trade. The intersection with machine learning is growing fast, but the base rates favor parsimonious models in this asset class more than anywhere else.
Related hubs: Risk Management, Options & Derivatives, Factor Investing.
Explainers from the corpus: ARDL models: appropriate use vs p-hacking → · risk measures beyond VaR →
Throughout the past year, Turkey’s central bank policy to decrease the nominal interest rate has caused episodes of severe fluctuations in Turkish lira exchange rates. According to these conditions, the daily return of the USD/TRY have attracted the risk-taker investors’ attention. Therefore, the un
Whenever dealing with horizons of different times scales, risk evaluation of losses may incur in both interest rate uncertainty and horizon risk as introduced in [11]. With the goal to capture both effects, we work with cash subadditive fully-dynamic risk measures. In this work we consider such meas
We investigate a pricing rule that is applicable for streams of income or contingent claim liabilities and study how this rule changes under additional insider-type information that an investor might obtain. Considering a model where the risky asset might have jumps, we obtain an explicit form of th
Based on the Lie symmetry method, we investigate a Feynman-Kac formula for the classical geometric mean reversion process, which effectively describing the dynamics of short-term interest rates. The Lie algebra of infinitesimal symmetries and the corresponding one-parameter symmetry groups of the eq
The implicit government guarantee hampers the recognition and management of risks by all stakeholders in the bond market, and it has led to excessive debt for local governments or state-owned enterprises. To prevent the risk of local government debt defaults and reduce investors’ expectations of imp
In this paper, we investigate a financial market model consisting of a risky asset, modeled as a general diffusion parameterized by a scale function and a speed measure, and a bank account process with a constant interest rate. This flexible class of financial market models allows for features such
Securitization is a financial process where the cash flows of income-generating assets are sold to institutional investors as securities, liquidating illiquid assets. This practice presents persistent challenges due to the absence of a comprehensive mathematical framework for structuring asset-backe
This study presents empirical evidence to support the validity of new definitions in financial markets. The author develops a new method to determine investors’ risk attitudes in financial markets. The risk attitudes of investors in US financial markets from 1889-1978 are analyzed and the results in
This work focuses on financial risks from a probabilistic point of view. The value of a firm is described as a geometric Brownian motion and default emerges as a first passage time event. On the technical side, the critical threshold that the value process has to cross to trigger the default is assu
We propose \textit{OpenAlpha}, a community-led strategy validation framework for decentralised capital management on a host blockchain network, which integrates game-theoretic validation, adversarial auditing, and market-based belief aggregation. This work formulates treasury deployment as a capital
Credit ratings are becoming one of the primary references for financial institutions of the country to assess credit risk in order to accurately predict the likelihood of business failure of an individual or an enterprise. Financial institutions, therefore, depend on credit rating tools and services
Project managers need to manage risks throughout the project lifecycle and, thus, need to know how changes in activity durations influence project duration and risk. We propose a new indicator (the Activity Risk Index, ARI) that measures the contribution of each activity to the total project risk wh
The money market and the capital market of the Indian financial markets have a symbiotic relationship in the development of the Indian economy. The nature and the characteristics of the markets differ to a large extent as the money market ensures liquidity in the system through the monetary policy b
A debt swap is an elementary edge swap in a directed, weighted graph, where two edges with the same weight swap their targets. Debt swaps are a natural and appealing operation in financial networks, in which nodes are banks and edges represent debt contracts. They can improve the clearing payments a
This article gives a probabilistic overview of the widely used method of default probability estimation proposed by K. Pluto and D. Tasche. There are listed detailed assumptions and derivation of the inequality where the probability of default is involved under the influence of systematic factor. Th
We synthesize and discuss some new developments in econophysics. In doing so, we focus on option pricing. We relax the assumptions of constant volatility and interest rate. In doing so, we rely on the square root of the Brownian motion. We also provide simple, closed-form pricing formulas for the Am
There exist two separate branches of finance that require advanced quantitative techniques: the “Q” area of derivatives pricing, whose task is to &quo
We identify all smooth manifolds of curves for Heath-Jarrow-Morton models that are consistent with any tangential diffusion coefficient. In fact, we show that these manifolds cannot be affine but must be of linear-rational type.
This paper draws upon the modern science of finance to address several important practical issues in personal finance. Chief among these is how much to save for
With the development of the financial industry, credit default prediction, as an important task in financial risk management, has received increasing attention. Traditional credit default prediction methods mostly rely on machine learning models, such as decision trees and random forests, but these