Fixed income is where quantitative finance’s modeling tradition runs deepest and data runs thinnest. This hub covers term-structure models (affine, HJM-lineage, and their ML successors), yield-curve forecasting, bond risk premia, and credit — spread dynamics, default modeling, and corporate bond market structure.
Two things distinguish strong papers here. First, honest treatment of the small-sample problem: there are only a handful of independent interest-rate cycles in any dataset, so out-of-sample claims rest on far less evidence than equity research enjoys, and papers that acknowledge regime dependence (pre/post-2008 zero-rate era, the 2022 repricing) age better. Second, attention to market plumbing — corporate bond research that ignores dealer intermediation costs and stale quotes produces backtests no desk can trade. The intersection with machine learning is growing fast, but the base rates favor parsimonious models in this asset class more than anywhere else.
Related hubs: Risk Management, Options & Derivatives, Factor Investing.
Explainers from the corpus: ARDL models: appropriate use vs p-hacking → · risk measures beyond VaR →
The primary aim of this research was to find a model that best predicts which fallen angel bonds would either potentially rise up back to investment grade bonds and which ones would fall into bankruptcy. To implement the solution, we thought that the ideal method would be to create an optimal machin
We present a new type of game, the Liquidity Game. We draw inspiration from the UK government bond market and apply game theoretic approaches to its analysis. In Liquidity Games, market participants (agents) use non-cooperative games where the players’ utility is directly defined by the liquidity of
This mini-project models propagation of shocks, in time point, through links in connected banks. In particular, financial network of 100 banks out of which 15 are shocked to default (that is, 85.00% of the banks are solvent) is modelled using Erdos and Renyi network – directed, weighted and randomly
Retirement prediction helps individuals and institutions make informed financial, lifestyle, and workforce decisions based on estimated retirement portfolios. This paper attempts to predict retirement using Monte Carlo simulations, allowing one to probabilistically account for a range of possibiliti
Financial structures such as securitisations, insurance contracts, and other hierarchical claims systems can be interpreted as deterministic allocation mechanisms acting on stochastic inflow processes. This paper develops a general computational representation of such structures by separating the st
This paper develops a model-free framework for static fixed-income pricing and the replication of liability cash flows. We show that the absence of static arbitrage across a universe of fixed-income instruments is equivalent to the existence of a strictly positive discount curve that reproduces all
We consider a financial market in which the short rate is modeled by a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) with a finite state space. In this setting, we show how to price any financial derivative whose payoff is a function of the state of the underlying CTMC at the maturity date. We also show how t
This handbook in Sustainable Finance corresponds to the lecture notes of the course given at University Paris-Saclay, ENSAE and Sorbonne University. It covers t
The tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) promises to transform financial markets by enabling fractional ownership, global accessibility, and programmable settlement of traditionally illiquid assets such as real estate, private credit, and government bonds. While technical progress has been rapid
The over-the-counter (OTC) government bond markets are characterised by their bilateral trading structures, which pose unique challenges to understanding and ensuring market stability and liquidity. In this paper, we develop a bespoke ABM that simulates market-maker interactions within a stylised go
We introduce a novel hybrid approach that augments Agent-Based Models (ABMs) with behaviors generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) to simulate human trading interactions. We call our model TraderTalk. Leveraging LLMs trained on extensive human-authored text, we capture detailed and nuanced repres
Exploring complex adaptive financial trading environments through multi-agent based simulation methods presents an innovative approach within the realm of quantitative finance. Despite the dominance of multi-agent reinforcement learning approaches in financial markets with observable data, there exi
Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies, public firms that hold large crypto reserves as a core strategy, deliver levered exposure to digital assets but face acute downside risk when equity premia over net asset value multiples (mNAV) compress in bear markets. This paper develops a survival framework
Elastic Cash is a new decentralized mechanism for regulating the money supply. The mechanism operates by modifying the supply so that an interest rate determined by a public market is kept approximately fixed. It can be incorporated into the conventional monetary system to improve the elasticity of
Many of the current difficulties in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) can be attributed to a misapplicati
Financial decisions are the decisions that managers take with regard to the finances of a company. This article aims to examine and explain the effect of interest rates on economic and financial decisions such as investment, funding, and dividend in a firm. This research uses the correlation coeffic
Financing of investments through green bonds has grown rapidly in recent years. But definitions of what makes a bond “green” vary. Various certificati
In this paper, we present a review of tax research. We survey four main areas of the literature: 1) the informational role of income tax expense reported for fi
The Panic of 2007-2008 was a run on the sale and repurchase market (the “repo” market), which is a very large, short-term market that provides financi
The essence of structured finance activities is the pooling of economic assets (e.g. loans, bonds, mortgages) and subsequent issuance of a prioritized capital s