Machine Learning for Market Forecasting

Accurate and efficient imbalance electricity price forecasting is critical for industrial energy trading systems, especially as battery assets and automated bidding pipelines increasingly participate in balancing markets. However, real-time forecasting is complicated by nonlinear market-rule-based p

In this paper, we introduce INEUS, a meshfree iterative neural solver for partial integro-differential equations (PIDEs). The method replaces the explicit evaluation of nonlocal jump integrals with single-jump sampling and reformulates PIDE solving as a sequence of recursive regression problems. Lik

Real-time calibration of stochastic volatility models (SVMs) is computationally bottlenecked by the need to repeatedly solve coupled partial differential equations (PDEs). In this work, we propose DeepSVM, a physics-informed Deep Operator Network (PI-DeepONet) designed to learn the solution operator

We investigate the static portfolio selection problem of S-shaped and non-concave utility maximization under first-order and second-order stochastic dominance (SD) constraints. In many S-shaped utility optimization problems, one should require a liquidation boundary to guarantee the existence of a f

In recent years, a rapid development of forecasting methods has led to an increase in the accuracy of predictions. In the literature, forecasts are typically evaluated using metrics such as Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). While appropriate for statistical assessment, th

Probabilistic forecasting is crucial in multivariate financial time-series for constructing efficient portfolios that account for complex cross-sectional dependencies. In this paper, we propose Diffolio, a diffusion model designed for multivariate financial time-series forecasting and portfolio cons

We present an uncertainty-aware, physics-informed neural network (PINN) for option pricing that solves the Black–Scholes (BS) partial differential equation (PDE) as a mesh-free, global surrogate over $(S,t)$. The model embeds the BS operator and boundary/terminal conditions in a residual-based objec

We present a systematic trading framework that forecasts short-horizon market risk, identifies its underlying drivers, and generates alpha using a hybrid machine learning ensemble built to trade on the resulting signal. The framework integrates neural networks with tree-based voting models to predic

Covariance matrices estimated from short, noisy, and non-Gaussian financial time series are notoriously unstable. Empirical evidence suggests that such covariance structures often exhibit power-law scaling, reflecting complex, hierarchical interactions among assets. Motivated by this observation, we

Robust asset allocation is a key challenge in quantitative finance, where deep-learning forecasters often fail due to objective mismatch and error amplification. We introduce the Signature-Informed Transformer (SIT), a novel framework that learns end-to-end allocation policies by directly optimizing

This study presents a comprehensive empirical comparison between quantum machine learning (QML) and classical machine learning (CML) approaches in Automated Market Makers (AMM) and Decentralized Finance (DeFi) trading strategies through extensive backtesting on 10 models across multiple cryptocurren

We propose a new pseudo-Siamese Network for Asset Pricing (SNAP) model, based on deep learning approaches, for conditional asset pricing. Our model allows for the deep alpha, deep beta and deep factor risk premia conditional on high dimensional observable information of financial characteristics and

The linear fractional stable motion (LFSM) extends the fractional Brownian motion (fBm) by considering $α$-stable increments. We propose a method to forecast future increments of the LFSM from past discrete-time observations, using the conditional expectation when $α>1$ or a semimetric projection ot

Purpose: This study introduces a novel framework for identifying and exploiting predictive lead-lag relationships in financial markets. We propose an integrated approach that combines advanced statistical methodologies with machine learning models to enhance the identification and exploitation of pr

This paper investigates the impact of posterior drift on out-of-sample forecasting accuracy in overparametrized machine learning models. We document the loss in performance when the loadings of the data generating process change between the training and testing samples. This matters crucially in set

We propose a hybrid quantum-classical reinforcement learning framework for sector rotation in the Taiwan stock market. Our system employs Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) as the backbone algorithm and integrates both classical architectures (LSTM, Transformer) and quantum-enhanced models (QNN, QRW

We introduce a novel proxy for firm linkages, Characteristic Vector Linkages (CVLs). We use this concept to estimate firm linkages, first through Euclidean similarity, and then by applying Quantum Cognition Machine Learning (QCML) to similarity learning. We demonstrate that both methods can be used

Fluctuations in stock prices are influenced by a complex interplay of factors that go beyond mere historical data. These factors, themselves influenced by external forces, encompass inter-stock dynamics, broader economic factors, various government policy decisions, outbreaks of wars, etc. Furthermo

In this paper, we propose an efficient implementation of deep policy gradient method (PGM) for optimal control problems in continuous time. The proposed method has the ability to manage the allocation of computational resources, number of trajectories, and complexity of architecture of the neural ne

As a fundamental method in economics and finance, the factor model has been extensively utilized in quantitative investment. In recent years, there has been a paradigm shift from traditional linear models with expert-designed factors to more flexible nonlinear machine learning-based models with data