The largest hub in the collection, covering neural networks, tree ensembles, transformers, and hybrid models applied to return prediction, price forecasting, and market-state classification. The volume reflects the field’s popularity; the score distribution reflects its problem — a large share of papers demonstrate in-sample pattern-fitting rather than out-of-sample edge.
A practical filter when reading: the base rate for daily directional accuracy on liquid instruments hovers near 50%, so headline accuracies of 60%+ usually signal look-ahead bias, survivorship bias, or an illiquid universe rather than alpha. The papers ranked highest below are those that publish full train/validation/test splits, compare against naive baselines, and account for costs. Tree ensembles on engineered features remain stubbornly competitive with deep architectures on tabular financial data — a finding that replicates across this hub repeatedly.
Related hubs: Reinforcement Learning, NLP & LLMs in Finance, Factor Investing.
Explainers from the corpus: XGBoost in finance: what the papers show →
This study explores the use of Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) for real-time cryptocurrency price prediction and optimized trading strategies. Given the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market, traditional forecasting models often fall short. By leveraging RNNs’ capability to capture long-term
In this study, we leverage powerful non-linear machine learning methods to identify the characteristics of trades that contain valuable information. First, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our optimized neural network predictor in accurately predicting future market movements. Then, we utilize th
When constructing portfolios, a key problem is that a lot of financial time series data are sparse, making it challenging to apply machine learning methods. Polymodel theory can solve this issue and demonstrate superiority in portfolio construction from various aspects. To implement the PolyModel th
Due to the dynamic nature of financial markets, maintaining models that produce precise predictions over time is difficult. Often the goal isn’t just point prediction but determining uncertainty. Quantifying uncertainty, especially the aleatoric uncertainty due to the unpredictable nature of market
Inspired by recent advances in Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs), we introduce a novel approach to latent factor conditional asset pricing models. While previous machine learning applications in asset pricing have predominantly used Multilayer Perceptrons with ReLU activation functions to model late
Predicting the S&P 500 index volatility is crucial for investors and financial analysts as it helps assess market risk and make informed investment decisions. Volatility represents the level of uncertainty or risk related to the size of changes in a security’s value, making it an essential indicator
The European carbon market plays a pivotal role in the European Union’s ambitious target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Understanding the intricacies of factors influencing European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) market prices is paramount for effective policy making and strategy im
There has been much interest in accurate cryptocurrency price forecast models by investors and researchers. Deep Learning models are prominent machine learning techniques that have transformed various fields and have shown potential for finance and economics. Although various deep learning models ha
In recent years, deep or reinforcement learning approaches have been applied to optimise investment portfolios through learning the spatial and temporal information under the dynamic financial market. Yet in most cases, the existing approaches may produce biased trading signals based on the conventi
In Statistical Arbitrage (StatArb), classical mean reversion trading strategies typically hinge on asset-pricing or PCA based models to identify the mean of a synthetic asset. Once such a (linear) model is identified, a separate mean reversion strategy is then devised to generate a trading signal. W
Machine learning models have demonstrated remarkable efficacy and efficiency in a wide range of stock forecasting tasks. However, the inherent challenges of data scarcity, including low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and data homogeneity, pose significant obstacles to accurate forecasting. To address t
Volatility, as a measure of uncertainty, plays a crucial role in numerous financial activities such as risk management. The Econometrics and Machine Learning communities have developed two distinct approaches for financial volatility forecasting: the stochastic approach and the neural network (NN) a
Kardemir Karabuk Iron Steel Industry Trade & Co. Inc., ranked as the 24th largest industrial company in Turkey, offers three distinct stocks listed on the Borsa Istanbul: KRDMA, KRDMB, and KRDMD. These stocks, sharing the sole difference in voting power, have exhibited significant price divergence o
This paper introduces the $σ$-Cell, a novel Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) architecture for financial volatility modeling. Bridging traditional econometric approaches like GARCH with deep learning, the $σ$-Cell incorporates stochastic layers and time-varying parameters to capture dynamic volatility
Network momentum provides a novel type of risk premium, which exploits the interconnections among assets in a financial network to predict future returns. However, the current process of constructing financial networks relies heavily on expensive databases and financial expertise, limiting accessibi
The recent advancements in Deep Learning (DL) research have notably influenced the finance sector. We examine the robustness and generalizability of fifteen state-of-the-art DL models focusing on Stock Price Trend Prediction (SPTP) based on Limit Order Book (LOB) data. To carry out this study, we de
Stock selection is important for investors to construct profitable portfolios. Graph neural networks (GNNs) are increasingly attracting researchers for stock prediction due to their strong ability of relation modelling and generalisation. However, the existing GNN methods only focus on simple pairwi
Market making (MM) is an important research topic in quantitative finance, the agent needs to continuously optimize ask and bid quotes to provide liquidity and make profits. The limit order book (LOB) contains information on all active limit orders, which is an essential basis for decision-making. T
Credit risk in the China’s bond market has become increasingly evident, creating a progressively escalating risk of default for credit bond investors. Given the current incomplete and inaccurate bond information disclosure, timely tracking and forecasting the individual credit bond default risks hav
In this paper, we propose a generative adversarial network (GAN) approach for efficiently computing volatility surfaces. The idea is to make use of the special GAN neural architecture so that on one hand, we can learn volatility surfaces from training data and on the other hand, enforce no-arbitrage