Machine Learning for Market Forecasting

In this paper, we simulate the execution of a large stock order with real data and general power law in the Almgren and Chriss model. The example that we consider is the liquidation of a large position executed over the course of a single trading day in a limit order book. Transaction costs are incu

We study a discrete-time multi-period portfolio optimization problem under an explicit constraint on the Deviation Conditional Value-at-Risk (DCVaR), defined as the excess of Conditional Value-at-Risk over expected terminal wealth. The objective is to maximize expected return subject to a global tai

Modern financial systems generate vast quantities of transactional and event-level data that encode rich economic signals. This paper presents PRAGMA, a family of foundation models for multi-source banking event sequences. Our approach pre-trains a Transformer-based architecture with masked modellin

Electricity price forecasting supports decision-making in energy markets and asset operation. Probabilistic forecasts are increasingly adopted to explicitly quantify uncertainty, typically issued as quantile predictions or ensembles of the full predictive distribution. However, how improvements in s

Time series encountered in practice are rarely stationary. When the data distribution changes, a forecasting model trained on past observations can lose accuracy. We study a small-footprint test-time adaptation (TTA) framework for causal timeseries forecasting and direction classification. The backb

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have emerged as a promising approach for zero-shot financial forecasting, demonstrating strong transferability and data efficiency gains. However, their adoption in financial applications is hindered by fundamental limitations in uncertainty quantification: curr

This paper re-examines the empirical Phillips curve (PC) model and its usefulness in the context of medium-term inflation forecasting. A latent variable Phillips curve hypothesis is formulated and tested using 3,968 randomly generated factor combinations. Evidence from US core PCE inflation between

We study short-horizon forecasting in financial time series under strict causal constraints, treating the market as a non-stationary stochastic system in which any predictive observable must be computable online from information available up to the decision time. Rather than proposing a machine-lear

Modern high-frequency trading (HFT) environments are characterized by sudden price spikes that present both risk and opportunity, but conventional financial models often fail to capture the required fine temporal structure. Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) offer a biologically inspired framework well-

For long term investments, model portfolios are defined at the level of indexes, a setup known as Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA). The possible outcomes at a scale of a few decades can be obtained by Monte Carlo simulations, resulting in a probability density for the possible portfolio values at th

Market generators using deep generative models have shown promise for synthetic financial data generation, but existing approaches lack causal reasoning capabilities essential for counterfactual analysis and risk assessment. We propose a Time-series Neural Causal Model VAE (TNCM-VAE) that combines v

This paper studies a joint stochastic optimal control and stopping (JCtrlOS) problem motivated by aquaculture operations, where the objective is to maximize farm profit through an optimal feeding strategy and harvesting time under stochastic price dynamics. We introduce a simplified aquaculture mode

OHLC bar data is a widely used format for representing financial asset prices over time due to its balance of simplicity and informativeness. Bloomberg has recently introduced a new bar data product that includes additional timing information-specifically, the timestamps of the open, high, low, and

The increasing penetration of variable renewable energy and flexible demand technologies, such as electric vehicles and heat pumps, introduces significant uncertainty in power systems, resulting in greater imbalance; defined as the deviation between scheduled and actual supply or demand. Short-term

Traditional models for pricing catastrophe (CAT) bonds struggle to capture the complex, relational data inherent in these instruments. This paper introduces CATNet, a novel framework that applies a geometric deep learning architecture, the Relational Graph Convolutional Network (R-GCN), to model the

This study develops and empirically validates a Mixture of Experts (MoE) framework for stock price prediction across heterogeneous volatility regimes using real market data. The proposed model combines a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) optimized for high-volatility stocks with a linear regression mod

The discrepancy between realized volatility and the market’s view of volatility has been known to predict individual equity options at the monthly horizon. It is not clear how this predictability depends on a forecast’s ability to predict firm-level volatility. We consider this phenomenon at the dai

This study introduces an interpretable machine learning (ML) framework to extract macroeconomic alpha from global news sentiment. We process the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) Project’s worldwide news feed using FinBERT – a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transforme

This paper proposes an innovative Transformer model, Single-directional representative from Transformer (SERT), for US large capital stock pricing. It also innovatively applies the pre-trained Transformer models under the stock pricing and factor investment context. They are compared with standard T

Recent advances in deep learning have spurred the development of end-to-end frameworks for portfolio optimization that utilize implicit layers. However, many such implementations are highly sensitive to neural network initialization, undermining performance consistency. This research introduces a ro