The largest hub in the collection, covering neural networks, tree ensembles, transformers, and hybrid models applied to return prediction, price forecasting, and market-state classification. The volume reflects the field’s popularity; the score distribution reflects its problem — a large share of papers demonstrate in-sample pattern-fitting rather than out-of-sample edge.
A practical filter when reading: the base rate for daily directional accuracy on liquid instruments hovers near 50%, so headline accuracies of 60%+ usually signal look-ahead bias, survivorship bias, or an illiquid universe rather than alpha. The papers ranked highest below are those that publish full train/validation/test splits, compare against naive baselines, and account for costs. Tree ensembles on engineered features remain stubbornly competitive with deep architectures on tabular financial data — a finding that replicates across this hub repeatedly.
Related hubs: Reinforcement Learning, NLP & LLMs in Finance, Factor Investing.
Explainers from the corpus: XGBoost in finance: what the papers show →
Multi-step stock price prediction over a long-term horizon is crucial for forecasting its volatility, allowing financial institutions to price and hedge derivatives, and banks to quantify the risk in their trading books. Additionally, most financial regulators also require a liquidity horizon of sev
Despite the tremendous advances achieved over the past years by deep learning techniques, the latest risk prediction models for industrial applications still rely on highly handtuned stage-wised statistical learning tools, such as gradient boosting and random forest methods. Different from images or
Volatility-based trading strategies have attracted a lot of attention in financial markets due to their ability to capture opportunities for profit from market dynamics. In this article, we propose a new volatility-based trading strategy that combines statistical analysis with machine learning techn
The Markowitz mean-variance portfolio optimization model aims to balance expected return and risk when investing. However, there is a significant limitation when solving large portfolio optimization problems efficiently: the large and dense covariance matrix. Since portfolio performance can be poten
In this paper, we investigate the application of quantum and quantum-inspired machine learning algorithms to stock return predictions. Specifically, we evaluate the performance of quantum neural network, an algorithm suited for noisy intermediate-scale quantum computers, and tensor network, a quantu
This study aims to address the challenges of futures price prediction in high-frequency trading (HFT) by proposing a continuous learning factor predictor based on graph neural networks. The model integrates multi-factor pricing theories with real-time market dynamics, effectively bypassing the limit
Algorithm fairness in the application of artificial intelligence (AI) is essential for a better society. As the foundational axiom of social mechanisms, fairness consists of multiple facets. Although the machine learning (ML) community has focused on intersectionality as a matter of statistical pari
We document and quantify the negative impact of trend breaks (i.e., turning points in the trajectory of asset prices) on the performance of standard monthly tre
We propose a novel model to achieve superior out-of-sample Sharpe ratios. While most research in asset allocation focuses on estimating the return vector and covariance matrix, the first component of our novel model instead forecasts the future tangency portfolio, and the second component then deter
Detecting anomalous trajectories in decentralized crypto networks is fundamentally challenged by extreme label scarcity and the adaptive evasion strategies of illicit actors. While Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) effectively capture local structural patterns, they struggle to internalize multi hop, log
Credit risk assessment increasingly relies on diverse sources of information beyond traditional structured financial data, particularly for micro and small enterprises (mSEs) with limited financial histories. This study proposes a multimodal framework that integrates structured credit variables, cli
We study how deep learning can improve valuation in the art market by incorporating the visual content of artworks into predictive models. Using a large repeated-sales dataset from major auction houses, we benchmark classical hedonic regressions and tree-based methods against modern deep architectur
Accurate option pricing is essential for effective trading and risk management in financial markets, yet it remains challenging due to market volatility and the limitations of traditional models like Black-Scholes. In this paper, we investigate the application of the Informer neural network for opti
Stock trend prediction involves forecasting the future price movements by analyzing historical data and various market indicators. With the advancement of machine learning, graph neural networks (GNNs) have been extensively employed in stock prediction due to their powerful capability to capture spa
The dissertation consists of three essays on responsible and sustainable finance. I show that local communities should be seen as stakeholders to decisions made by corporations. In the first essay, I examine whether the imposition of fiduciary duty on municipal advisors affects bond yields and advis
The most commonly used form of regularization typically involves defining the penalty function as a L1 or L2 norm. However, numerous alternative approaches remain untested in practical applications. In this study, we apply ten different penalty functions to predict electricity prices and evaluate th
In this paper we tackle the problem of point and probabilistic forecasting by describing a blending methodology of machine learning models that belong to gradient boosted trees and neural networks families. These principles were successfully applied in the recent M5 Competition on both Accuracy and
We explored the potential applications of various Quantum Algorithms for stock price prediction by conducting a series of experimental simulations using both Classical as well as Quantum Hardware. Firstly, we extracted various stock price indicators, such as Moving Averages (MA), Average True Range
Machine learning (ML) methods are becoming increasingly important in the design economic scenario generators for internal models. Validation of data-driven models differs from classical theory-based models. We discuss two novel aspects of such a validation: first, checking dependencies between risk
News may reveal systematic risk, but whether its context enhances the construction of systematic risk factors is still unclear. We seek to test whether utilizing a sentence transformer represents an improvement over techniques such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) in the coherence of topic term