Machine Learning for Market Forecasting

Micro-blogging sources such as the Twitter social network provide valuable real-time data for market prediction models. Investors’ opinions in this network follow the fluctuations of the stock markets and often include educated speculations on market opportunities that may have impact on the actions

The transformer models have been extensively used with good results in a wide area of machine learning applications including Large Language Models and image generation. Here, we inquire on the applicability of this approach to financial time series. We first describe the dataset construction for tw

Sentiment analysis can be used for stock market prediction. However, existing research has not studied the impact of a user’s financial background on sentiment-based forecasting of the stock market using artificial neural networks. In this work, a novel combination of neural networks is used for the

With the increasing volume of high-frequency data in the information age, both challenges and opportunities arise in the prediction of stock volatility. On one hand, the outcome of prediction using tradition method combining stock technical and macroeconomic indicators still leaves room for improvem

Predicting startup success presents a formidable challenge due to the inherently volatile landscape of the entrepreneurial ecosystem. The advent of extensive databases like Crunchbase jointly with available open data enables the application of machine learning and artificial intelligence for more ac

Financial performance management is at the core of business management and has historically relied on financial ratio analysis using Balance Sheet and Income Statement data to assess company performance as compared with competitors. Little progress has been made in predicting how a company will perf

We propose a new multistep deep learning-based algorithm for the resolution of moderate to high dimensional nonlinear backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) and their corresponding parabolic partial differential equations (PDE). Our algorithm relies on the iterated time discretisation of

The growing attention on cryptocurrencies has led to increasing research on digital stock markets. Approaches and tools usually applied to characterize standard stocks have been applied to the digital ones. Among these tools is the identification of processes of market fluctuations. Being interestin

This study develops a numerical scheme for path-dependent FBSDEs and PDEs. We introduce a Picard iteration method for solving path-dependent FBSDEs, prove its convergence to the true solution, and establish its rate of convergence. A key contribution of our approach is a novel estimator for the mart

In this paper, we explore potential uses of generative AI models, such as ChatGPT, for investment portfolio selection. Trusting investment advice from Generative Pre-Trained Transformer (GPT) models is a challenge due to model “hallucinations”, necessitating careful verification and validation of th

This paper proposes a novel meta-learning approach to optimize a robust portfolio ensemble. The method uses a deep generative model to generate diverse and high-quality sub-portfolios combined to form the ensemble portfolio. The generative model consists of a convolutional layer, a stateful LSTM mod

The problem of selecting an appropriate number of features in supervised learning problems is investigated in this paper. Starting with common methods in machine learning, we treat the feature selection task as a quadratic unconstrained optimization problem (QUBO), which can be tackled with classica

We present a replication and correction of a recent article (Ramirez, P., Reade, J.J., Singleton, C., Betting on a buzz: Mispricing and inefficiency in online sportsbooks, International Journal of Forecasting, 39:3, 2023, pp. 1413-1423, doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.07.011). RRS measure profile pag

Finding the hedge ratios for a portfolio and risk compression is the same mathematical problem. Traditionally, regression is used for this purpose. However, regression has its own limitations. For example, in a regression model, we can’t use highly correlated independent variables due to multicollin

This paper examines whether SEC Form 4 insider purchase filings predict abnormal returns in U.S. microcap stocks. The analysis covers 17,237 open-market purchases across 1,343 issuers from 2018 through 2024, restricted to market capitalizations between $30M and $500M. A gradient boosting classifie

Mention markets, a type of prediction market in which contracts resolve based on whether a specified keyword is mentioned during a future public event, require accurate probabilistic forecasts of keyword-mention outcomes. While recent work shows that large language models (LLMs) can generate forecas

Binary options trading is often marketed as a field where predictive models can generate consistent profits. However, the inherent randomness and stochastic nature of binary options make price movements highly unpredictable, posing significant challenges for any forecasting approach. This study demo

This paper proposes a financial fraud detection system based on improved Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM). Specifically, the system introduces a novel model architecture called GBM-SSRF (Gradient Boosting Machine with Simplified and Strengthened Random Forest), which cleverly c

This study applies machine learning to predict S&P 500 membership changes: key events that profoundly impact investor behavior and market dynamics. Quarterly data from WRDS datasets (2013 onwards) was used, incorporating features such as industry classification, financial data, market data, and corp

This project aims to predict short-term and long-term upward trends in the S&P 500 index using machine learning models and feature engineering based on the “101 Formulaic Alphas” methodology. The study employed multiple models, including Logistic Regression, Decision Trees, Random Forests, Neural Ne