Machine Learning for Market Forecasting

This study investigates the relationship between narratives conveyed through microblogging platforms, namely Twitter, and the value of crypto assets. Our study provides a unique technique to build narratives about cryptocurrency by combining topic modelling of short texts with sentiment analysis. Fi

We discuss and analyze a neural network architecture, that enables learning a model class for a set of different data samples rather than just learning a single model for a specific data sample. In this sense, it may help to reduce the overfitting problem, since, after learning the model class over

We consider the problem of simultaneously approximating the conditional distribution of market prices and their log returns with a single machine learning model. We show that an instance of the GDN model of Kratsios and Papon (2022) solves this problem without having prior assumptions on the market'

We discuss our simulation tool, fintech-kMC, which is designed to generate synthetic data for machine learning model development and testing. fintech-kMC is an agent-based model driven by a kinetic Monte Carlo (a.k.a. continuous time Monte Carlo) engine which simulates the behaviour of customers usi

We study cash-flow forecasting for derivatives used in liquidity management and clarify its relation to risk-neutral valuation and replication. While it is well known that expectations under different measures (e.g., $\mathbb{P}$ vs. $\mathbb{Q}$) can yield different undiscounted cash-flows, further

Financial crises emerge when structural vulnerabilities accumulate across sectors, markets, and investor behavior. Predicting these systemic transitions is challenging because they arise from evolving interactions between market participants, not isolated price movements alone. We present Systemic R

This study presents a three-step machine learning framework to predict bubbles in the S&P 500 stock market by combining financial news sentiment with macroeconomic indicators. Building on traditional econometric approaches, the proposed approach predicts bubble formation by integrating textual and q

Deep learning offers new tools for portfolio optimization. We present an end-to-end framework that directly learns portfolio weights by combining Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to model temporal patterns, Graph Attention Networks (GAT) to capture evolving inter-stock relationships, and senti

Financial time-series forecasting remains a challenging task due to complex temporal dependencies and market fluctuations. This study explores the potential of hybrid quantum-classical approaches to assist in financial trend prediction by leveraging quantum resources for improved feature representat

Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is arguably the most prevalent benchmark for trade execution as it provides an unbiased standard for comparing performance across market participants. However, achieving VWAP is inherently challenging due to its dependence on two dynamic factors, volumes and pric

In the realm of option pricing, existing models are typically classified into principle-driven methods, such as solving partial differential equations (PDEs) that pricing function satisfies, and data-driven approaches, such as machine learning (ML) techniques that parameterize the pricing function d

Predicting the movement of the stock market and other assets has been valuable over the past few decades. Knowing how the value of a certain sector market may move in the future provides much information for investors, as they use that information to develop strategies to maximize profit or minimize

This research aims to predict the price of rice in Banda Aceh after the occurrence of Covid-19. The last observation carried forward (LOCF) imputation technique has been used to solve the problem of missing values from this research data. Furthermore, the technique used to forecast rice prices in Ba

Predicting financial markets and stock price movements requires analyzing a company’s performance, historic price movements, industry-specific events alongside the influence of human factors such as social media and press coverage. We assume that financial reports (such as income statements, balance

This paper investigates the application of machine learning models, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), one-dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks (1D CNN), and Logistic Regression (LR), for predicting stock trends based on fundamental analysis. Unlike most existing studies that predominantly utilize

We examine how large language models (LLMs) interpret historical stock returns and compare their forecasts with estimates from a crowd-sourced platform for ranking stocks. While stock returns exhibit short-term reversals, LLM forecasts over-extrapolate, placing excessive weight on recent performance

We investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can successfully perform financial statement analysis in a way similar to a professional human analyst. We provide standardized and anonymous financial statements to GPT4 and instruct the model to analyze them to determine the direction of firms’ f

This study evaluates the performance of 41 machine learning models, including 21 classifiers and 20 regressors, in predicting Bitcoin prices for algorithmic trading. By examining these models under various market conditions, we highlight their accuracy, robustness, and adaptability to the volatile c

Prediction of stock prices has been a crucial and challenging task, especially in the case of highly volatile digital currencies such as Bitcoin. This research examineS the potential of using neural network models, namely LSTMs and GRUs, to forecast Bitcoin’s price movements. We employ five-fold cro

This paper introduces a novel methodology for index return forecasting, blending highly correlated stock prices, advanced deep learning techniques, and intricate factor integration. Departing from conventional cap-weighted approaches, our innovative framework promises to reimagine traditional method