Text became a mainstream data source for quant research in three waves: dictionary-based sentiment scoring of news and filings, supervised NLP on earnings calls and social media, and — since 2023 — large language models used for everything from extracting signals to simulating analysts. This hub tracks all three, with the LLM wave now dominating new submissions.
The evaluation bar shifts with each wave, and it’s worth knowing where it currently stands: for LLM-based trading papers, the critical flaw to check is temporal leakage — a model whose training data includes the test period’s news has seen the future, and many published backtests fail exactly this test. The papers ranked highest below either use point-in-time text data with pre-cutoff models or study tasks (extraction, classification, summarization quality) where leakage doesn’t invalidate the result. Sentiment-signal decay is the other recurring theme: documented text signals fade fast once published.
Related hubs: Machine Learning for Forecasting, Crypto Markets & DeFi, Factor Investing.
In the modern financial sector, the exponential growth of data has made efficient and accurate financial data analysis increasingly crucial. Traditional methods, such as statistical analysis and rule-based systems, often struggle to process and derive meaningful insights from complex financial infor
Stock trend forecasting, a challenging problem in the financial domain, involves ex-tensive data and related indicators. Relying solely on empirical analysis often yields unsustainable and ineffective results. Machine learning researchers have demonstrated that the application of random forest algor
Detecting anomalies in general ledger data is of utmost importance to ensure trustworthiness of financial records. Financial audits increasingly rely on machine learning (ML) algorithms to identify irregular or potentially fraudulent journal entries, each characterized by a varying number of transac
This study investigates the relationship between narratives conveyed through microblogging platforms, namely Twitter, and the value of crypto assets. Our study provides a unique technique to build narratives about cryptocurrency by combining topic modelling of short texts with sentiment analysis. Fi
Recently, large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT have demonstrated remarkable performance across a variety of natural language processing tasks. However, their effectiveness in the financial domain, specifically in predicting stock market movements, remains to be explored. In this paper, we condu
We present the first portfolio-level validation of MarketSenseAI, a deployed multi-agent LLM equity system. All signals are generated live at each observation date, eliminating look-ahead bias. The system routes four specialist agents (News, Fundamentals, Dynamics, and Macro) through a synthesis age
Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable potential as autonomous agents, approaching human-expert performance through advanced reasoning and tool orchestration. However, decision-making in fully dynamic and live environments remains highly challenging, requiring real-time informatio
This study presents a three-step machine learning framework to predict bubbles in the S&P 500 stock market by combining financial news sentiment with macroeconomic indicators. Building on traditional econometric approaches, the proposed approach predicts bubble formation by integrating textual and q
Deep learning offers new tools for portfolio optimization. We present an end-to-end framework that directly learns portfolio weights by combining Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to model temporal patterns, Graph Attention Networks (GAT) to capture evolving inter-stock relationships, and senti
In financial trading, large language model (LLM)-based agents demonstrate significant potential. However, the high sensitivity to market noise undermines the performance of LLM-based trading systems. To address this limitation, we propose a novel multi-agent system featuring an internal competitive
Large language models are increasingly used in social sciences, but their training data can introduce lookahead bias and training leakage. A good chronologically consistent language model requires efficient use of training data to maintain accuracy despite time-restricted data. Here, we overcome thi
Cryptocurrency investment is inherently difficult due to its shorter history compared to traditional assets, the need to integrate vast amounts of data from various modalities, and the requirement for complex reasoning. While deep learning approaches have been applied to address these challenges, th
Predicting the movement of the stock market and other assets has been valuable over the past few decades. Knowing how the value of a certain sector market may move in the future provides much information for investors, as they use that information to develop strategies to maximize profit or minimize
Predicting financial markets and stock price movements requires analyzing a company’s performance, historic price movements, industry-specific events alongside the influence of human factors such as social media and press coverage. We assume that financial reports (such as income statements, balance
We examine how large language models (LLMs) interpret historical stock returns and compare their forecasts with estimates from a crowd-sourced platform for ranking stocks. While stock returns exhibit short-term reversals, LLM forecasts over-extrapolate, placing excessive weight on recent performance
We investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can successfully perform financial statement analysis in a way similar to a professional human analyst. We provide standardized and anonymous financial statements to GPT4 and instruct the model to analyze them to determine the direction of firms’ f
Market fluctuations caused by overtrading are important components of systemic market risk. This study examines the effect of investor sentiment on intraday overtrading activities in the Chinese A-share market. Employing high-frequency sentiment indices inferred from social media posts on the Eastmo
Large language models (LLMs), including ChatGPT, can extract profitable trading signals from the sentiment in news text. However, backtesting such strategies poses a challenge because LLMs are trained on many years of data, and backtesting produces biased results if the training and backtesting peri
With the rapid development of big data and computing devices, low-latency automatic trading platforms based on real-time information acquisition have become the main components of the stock trading market, so the topic of quantitative trading has received widespread attention. And for non-strongly e
Training machine learning models for predicting stock market share prices is an active area of research since the automatization of trading such papers was available in real time. While most of the work in this field of research is done by training Neural networks based on past prices of stock share
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