Portfolio Optimization

Forecasters often score the same units per date against one standardized realized outcome. We show that every standardized forecast splits exactly into a component aligned with this common target and a component uncorrelated with it. Three consequences follow: forecast-error correlation largely mirr

Metaheuristic algorithms for cardinality-constrained portfolio optimization require repair operators to map infeasible candidates onto the feasible region. Standard Euclidean projection treats assets as independent and can ignore the covariance structure that governs portfolio risk, potentially prod

We propose a novel conditional diffusion model for portfolio optimization that learns the cross-sectional distribution of next-day stock returns conditioned on asset-specific factors. The model builds on the Diffusion Transformer with token-wise conditioning, linking each asset’s return to its own f

This paper explores the estimation and inference of the minimum spanning set (MSS), the smallest subset of risky assets that spans the mean-variance efficient frontier of the full asset set. We establish identification conditions for the MSS and develop a novel procedure for its estimation and infer

We study continuous-time mean–variance portfolio selection in markets where stock prices are diffusion processes driven by observable factors that are also diffusion processes, yet the coefficients of these processes are unknown. Based on the recently developed reinforcement learning (RL) theory for

In quantitative finance, machine learning methods are essential for alpha generation. This study introduces a new approach that combines Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and neural networks, integrated with Black-Litterman portfolio optimization. During the COVID period (2019-2022), this dual-model approa

The study seeks to develop an effective strategy based on the novel framework of statistical arbitrage based on graph clustering algorithms. Amalgamation of quantitative and machine learning methods, including the Kelly criterion, and an ensemble of machine learning classifiers have been used to imp

We introduce a new framework for the mean-variance spanning (MVS) hypothesis testing. The procedure can be applied to any test-asset dimension and only requires stationary asset returns and the number of benchmark assets to be smaller than the number of time periods. It involves individually testing

Factor mining seeks to discover signals from financial data that predict future asset returns and guide portfolio construction. Automated factor mining now spans genetic programming, reinforcement learning, generative models, and large language model agents. Yet it remains unclear whether advances a

Stock price forecasting is a long-standing challenge in computational finance, driven by the inherent randomness of markets and complex temporal patterns. While recent deep-learning models have raised forecasting accuracy by jointly modeling inter-stock and temporal price dynamics, they conflate int

ESG-aware portfolio optimization is increasingly important for sustainable capital allocation, yet most learning-based methods still operationalize ESG by appending static scores to the policy observation or reward. This creates a mismatch for sequential control: ESG scores are noisy, provider-depen

We study cubic cardinality-constrained portfolio optimization, a higher-order extension of the standard Markowitz formulation where three-way sector co-movement terms augment the quadratic risk-return objective. Classical heuristics like simulated annealing (SA) and tabu search require Rosenberg qua

This paper proposes a reinforcement learning–based framework for cryptocurrency portfolio management using the Soft Actor–Critic (SAC) and Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG) algorithms. Traditional portfolio optimization methods often struggle to adapt to the highly volatile and nonlinear dyn

We study the dynamic investment decisions of investors who prioritise specific quantiles of outcomes over their expected values. Downside-focused agents targeting low quantiles reduce risk in states with high variance, while those with a preference for high quantiles concentrate in sleeves with high

This paper investigates an important problem of an appropriate variance-covariance matrix estimation in the Modern Portfolio Theory. We propose a novel framework for variancecovariance matrix estimation for purposes of the portfolio optimization, which is based on deep learning models. We employ the

The efficient and effective construction of portfolios that adhere to real-world constraints is a challenging optimization task in finance. We investigate a concrete representation of the problem with a focus on design proposals of an Exchange Traded Fund. We evaluate the sampling-based CVaR Variati

Recovery rate prediction plays a pivotal role in bond investment strategies by enhancing risk assessment, optimizing portfolio allocation, improving pricing accuracy, and supporting effective credit risk management. However, accurate forecasting remains challenging due to complex nonlinear dependenc

This article explores dynamic factor allocation by analyzing the cyclical performance of factors through regime analysis. The authors focus on a U.S. equity investment universe comprising seven long-only indices representing the market and six style factors: value, size, momentum, quality, low volat

Markowitz’s criterion aims to balance expected return and risk when optimizing the portfolio. The expected return level is usually fixed according to the risk appetite of an investor, then the risk is minimized at this fixed return level. However, the investor may not know which return level is suit

In the era of rapid globalization and digitalization, accurate identification of similar stocks has become increasingly challenging due to the non-stationary nature of financial markets and the ambiguity in conventional regional and sector classifications. To address these challenges, we examine Sim