Risk Management & Tail Risk

This paper introduces and examines numerical approximation schemes for computing risk budgeting portfolios associated to positive homogeneous and sub-additive risk measures. We employ Mirror Descent algorithms to determine the optimal risk budgeting weights in both deterministic and stochastic setti

Value at Risk (VaR) and stress testing are two of the most widely used approaches in portfolio risk management to estimate potential market value losses under adverse market moves. VaR quantifies potential loss in value over a specified horizon (such as one day or ten days) at a desired confidence l

Generating synthetic financial time series data that accurately reflects real-world market dynamics holds tremendous potential for various applications, including portfolio optimization, risk management, and large scale machine learning. We present an approach that {uses structured noise} for traini

This study aims to examine the intricate dynamics between BRICS traditional stock assets and the evolving landscape of cryptocurrencies. Using a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model (TVP-VAR), we have analyzed data from the BRICS stock market index, cryptocurrencies, and indicators fro

The correlation-based financial networks are studied intensively. However, previous studies ignored the importance of the anti-correlation. This paper is the first to consider the anti-correlation and positive correlation separately, and accordingly construct the weighted temporal anti-correlation a

This paper introduces a credit risk rating model for credit risk assessment in quantitative finance, aiming to categorize borrowers based on their behavioral data. The model is trained on data from Experian, a widely recognized credit bureau, to effectively identify instances of loan defaults among

This work studies the dynamic risk management of the risk-neutral value of the potential credit losses on a portfolio of derivatives. Sensitivities-based hedging of such liability is sub-optimal because of bid-ask costs, pricing models which cannot be completely realistic, and a discontinuity at def

In this paper, we propose a general bi-objective model for portfolio selection, aiming to maximize both a diversification measure and the portfolio expected return. Within this general framework, we focus on maximizing a diversification measure recently proposed by Choueifaty and Coignard for the ca

In this study, we address the challenge of portfolio optimization, a critical aspect of managing investment risks and maximizing returns. The mean-CVaR portfolio is considered a promising method due to today’s unstable financial market crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. It incorporates expected retu

Central clearing counterparty houses (CCPs) play a fundamental role in mitigating the counterparty risk for exchange traded options. CCPs cover for possible losses during the liquidation of a defaulting member’s portfolio by collecting initial margins from their members. In this article we analyze t

We refer to recent inference methodology and formulate a framework for solving the distributionally robust optimization problem, where the true probability measure is inside a Wasserstein ball around the empirical measure and the radius of the Wasserstein ball is determined by the empirical data. We

We present a parsimonious neural network approach, which does not rely on dynamic programming techniques, to solve dynamic portfolio optimization problems subject to multiple investment constraints. The number of parameters of the (potentially deep) neural network remains independent of the number o

The dynamic portfolio construction problem requires dynamic modeling of the joint distribution of multivariate stock returns. To achieve this, we propose a dynamic generative factor model which uses random variable transformation as an implicit way of distribution modeling and relies on the Attentio

The valuation of over-the-counter derivatives is subject to a series of valuation adjustments known as xVA, which pose additional risks for financial institutions. Associated risk measures, such as the value-at-risk of an underlying valuation adjustment, play an important role in managing these risk

The purpose of this paper is to utilize statistical methodologies to infer from market prices of assets and their derivatives the magnitude of the set of a measure M that defines acceptance sets of risky future cash flows. Specifically, we estimate upper and lower boundaries of the compensation need

Firms increasingly borrow via sustainability-linked loans (SLLs), contractually tying spreads to their ESG performance. SLLs vary widely in transparency of disc

Predicting future operational risk losses gives rise to a significant challenge due to the heterogeneous and time-dependent structures present in real-world data. Furthermore, stress test exercises require examining the relationship with operational losses. To capture such relationship, we propose t

We propose Generative Adversarial Regression (GAR), a framework for learning conditional risk scenarios through generators aligned with downstream risk objectives. GAR builds on a regression characterization of conditional risk for elicitable functionals, including quantiles, expectiles, and jointly

Invoice or payment dilution is the gap between the approved invoice amount and the actual collection is a significant source of non credit risk and margin loss in supply chain finance. Traditionally, this risk is managed through the buyer’s irrevocable payment undertaking (IPU), which commits to ful

Micro-structural models of contagion and systemic risk emphasize that shock propagation is inherently multi-channel, spanning counterparty exposures, short-term funding and roll-over risk, securities cross-holdings, and common-asset (fire-sale) spillovers. Empirical implementations, however, often r