Risk Management & Tail Risk

This study examines portfolio selection using predictive models for portfolio returns. Portfolio selection is a fundamental task in finance, and a variety of methods have been developed to achieve this goal. For instance, the mean-variance approach constructs portfolios by balancing the trade-off be

This paper investigates the convergence properties of sample-average approximations (SAA) for set-valued systemic risk measures. We assume that the systemic risk measure is defined using a general aggregation function with some continuity properties and value-at-risk applied as a monetary risk measu

The study examines whether fama-french equity factors can effectively explain the idiosyncratic risk and return characteristics of Bitcoin. By incorporating Fama-french factors, the explanatory power of these factors on Bitcoin’s excess returns over various moving average periods is tested through a

Stress testing refers to the application of adverse financial or macroeconomic scenarios to a portfolio. For this purpose, financial or macroeconomic risk factors are linked with asset returns, typically via a factor model. We expand the range of risk factors by adapting dimension-reduction techniqu

This paper introduces a novel framework for assessing risk and decision-making in the presence of uncertainty, the \emph{$\varphi$-Divergence Quadrangle}. This approach expands upon the traditional Risk Quadrangle, a model that quantifies uncertainty through four key components: \emph{risk, deviatio

We consider a liquidity provider’s (LP’s) exposure to stablecoin and liquid staking derivative (LSD) depegs on Curve’s StableSwap pools. We construct a suite of metrics designed to detect potential asset depegs based on price and trading data. Using our metrics, we fine-tune a Bayesian Online Change

We propose a multilevel stochastic approximation (MLSA) scheme for the computation of the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of a financial loss, which can only be computed via simulations conditionally on the realisation of future risk factors. Thus the problem of estimating its VaR an

This paper introduces a model for infinite-server queues driven by a Cox process with stochastic intensity given by a squared Bessel (BESQ) process. Exploiting the affine structure of the underlying dynamics, we derive a closed-form expression for the joint moment-generating function (MGF) of the ar

Worst-case risk evaluation is central to finance and operations research, yet existing analytical results remain fragmented and largely confined to ambiguity sets with specific structures. Using spectral risk measures as the underlying class, we develop a convex variational theory that unifies these

Lambda quantiles, originally introduced as lambda value at risk, generalise the classical value at risk by allowing for a variable confidence level. This work presents efficient algorithms for computing lambda quantiles and demonstrates their application in portfolio optimisation. We first develop a

This paper investigates how similarity in the informational representation of market states among Artificial Intelligence (AI) trading agents can generate systemic instability in financial markets. We construct a structural multi-agent market model calibrated using high-frequency microstructural mom

Finance professionals, who are regularly exposed to notions of volatility, seem to confuse mean absolute deviation with standard deviation, causing an underesti

The classical mean-variance framework characterizes portfolio risk solely through return variance and the covariance matrix, implicitly assuming that all relevant sources of risk are captured by second moments. In modern financial markets, however, shocks often propagate through complex networks of

As the FX markets continue to evolve, many institutions have started offering passive access to their internal liquidity pools. Market makers act as principal and have the opportunity to fill those orders as part of their risk management, or they may choose to adjust pricing to their external OTC fr

Modern economic systems face unprecedented socioeconomic challenges, making systemic resilience and effective liquidity flow management essential. Traditional models such as CAPM, VaR, and GARCH often fail to reflect real market fluctuations and extreme events. This study develops and validates an i

We consider an equity market subject to risk from both unhedgeable shocks and default. The novelty of our work is that to partially offset default risk, investors may dynamically trade in a credit default swap (CDS) market. Assuming investment opportunities are driven by functions of an underlying d

To quantify the changes in the credit rating of a bond is an important mathematical problem for the credit rating industry. To think of the credit rating as the state a Markov chain is an interesting proposal leading to challenges in mathematical modeling. Since cumulative default rates are more rea

This study examines contemporaneous and lagged spillover effects in BRICS staple grain futures markets and their linkages with U.S. markets. The results show that contemporaneous spillovers dominate, while net spillovers are driven by lagged connectedness. Systemic risk is lower in intra-BRICS marke

In this study, we applied the NEAT (NeuroEvolution of Augmenting Topologies) algorithm to stock trading using multiple technical indicators. Our approach focused on maximizing earning, avoiding risk, and outperforming the Buy & Hold strategy. We used progressive training data and a multi-objective f

To ensure and monitor large language models (LLMs) reliably, various evaluation metrics have been proposed in the literature. However, there is little research on prescribing a methodology to identify a robust threshold on these metrics even though there are many serious implications of an incorrect