Risk Management & Tail Risk

Liquidity providers are essential for the function of decentralized exchanges to ensure liquidity takers can be guaranteed a counterparty for their trades. However, liquidity providers investing in liquidity pools face many risks, the most prominent of which is impermanent loss. Currently, analysis

Background: Credit risk modelling is fundamental in financial institutions, typically using credit history, repayment behaviour, income, and outstanding debt to estimate a borrower’s probability of default. Although transactional data are sometimes incorporated through aggregated measures such as re

In recent years Australia has observed a growing, unexplained resilience of increasing house price trends. Here, we seek to understand what is driving Australia’s indestructible asset using insights from market experts. We construct a differential equation model of house price to develop intuition f

This paper introduces a transformative framework for managing path-dependent financial risk by shifting from traditional distribution-centric models to a geometry-based approach. We propose the SigSwap as a new regulatory instrument that allows market participants to decompose complex risk into term

The aim of this research is to study XRP cryptoasset price dynamics, with a particular focus on forecasting atypical price movements. Recent studies suggest that topological properties of transaction graphs are highly informative for understanding cryptocurrency price behavior. In this work, we show

We analyze daily lead-time distributions for two Airbnb demand metrics, Nights Booked (volume) and Gross Booking Value (revenue), treating each day’s allocation across 0-365 days as a compositional vector. The data span 2,557 days from January 2019 through December 2025 in a large North American reg

Historically, financial risk management has mostly addressed risk factors that arise from the financial environment. Climate risks present a novel and significant challenge for companies and financial markets. Investors aiming for avoidance of firms with high carbon footprints require suitable risk

A Bayesian analytics framework that precisely quantifies uncertainty offers a significant advance for financial risk management. We develop an integrated approach that consistently enhances the handling of risk in market volatility forecasting, fraud detection, and compliance monitoring. Our probabi

Estimating risk measures such as large loss probabilities and Value-at-Risk is fundamental in financial risk management and often relies on computationally intensive nested Monte Carlo methods. While Multi-Level Monte Carlo (MLMC) techniques and their weighted variants are typically more efficient,

In quantitative investing, return prediction supports various tasks, including stock selection, portfolio optimization, and risk management. Quantitative factors, such as valuation, quality, and growth, capture various characteristics of stocks. Unstructured data, like news and transcripts, has attr

We develop a statistical framework for risk estimation, inspired by the axiomatic theory of risk measures. Coherent risk estimators – functionals of P&L samples inheriting the economic properties of risk measures – are defined and characterized through robust representations linked to $L$-estimators

Recent studies have highlighted the significance of higher-order moments - such as coskewness - in portfolio optimization within the financial domain. This paper extends that focus to the field of actuarial science by examining the impact of these moments on key actuarial applications. In the first

Propose a deep learning driven multi factor investment model optimization method for risk control. By constructing a deep learning model based on Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and combining it with a multi factor investment model, we optimize factor selection and weight determination to enhance the

Drawdown risk, an important metric in financial risk management, poses significant computational challenges due to its highly path-dependent nature. This paper proposes a unified framework for computing five important drawdown quantities introduced in Landriault et al. (2015) and Zhang (2015) under

We consider the problem of an agent who faces losses in continuous time over a finite time horizon and may choose to share some of these losses with a counterparty. The agent is uncertain about the true loss distribution and has multiple models for the losses. Their goal is to optimize a mean-varian

This work aims to implement Long Short-Term Memory mixture density networks (LSTM-MDNs) for Value-at-Risk forecasting and compare their performance with established models (historical simulation, CMM, and GARCH) using a defined backtesting procedure. The focus was on the neural network’s ability to

Choquet capacities and integrals are central concepts in decision making under ambiguity or model uncertainty, pioneered by Schmeidler. Motivated by risk optimization problems for quantiles under ambiguity, we study the subclass of Choquet integrals, called Choquet quantiles, which generalizes the u

We address the liquidation problem arising from the credit risk management in decentralised finance (DeFi) by formulating it as an ergodic optimal control problem. In decentralised derivatives exchanges, liquidation is triggered whenever the parties fail to maintain sufficient collateral for their o

This paper investigates the application of Feature-Enriched Generative Adversarial Networks (FE-GAN) in financial risk management, with a focus on improving the estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). FE-GAN enhances existing GANs architectures by incorporating an additional i

This paper addresses the estimation of the systemic risk measure known as CoVaR, which quantifies the risk of a financial portfolio conditional on another portfolio being at risk. We identify two principal challenges: conditioning on a zero-probability event and the repricing of portfolios. To tackl