Risk Management & Tail Risk

Mortgage credit risk may exhibit dependence across economically connected areas, even when they are geographically distant. However, current models typically represent cross-area dependence through fixed geographical neighbourhoods, potentially overlooking economic connections that extend beyond phy

A realized tail-risk conditional autoregressive expectile (RTCARE) model is proposed for joint forecasting of value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES). Realized tail measures such as the realized quantile and the realized ES, constructed from intraday high-frequency returns, are incorporated

Feature selection for imbalanced classification tasks such as credit card fraud and consumer default detection requires balancing predictive relevance, inter-feature redundancy, and computational feasibility. We benchmark three computing paradigms, classical branch-and-bound optimization (Gurobi), p

Modeling the joint distribution of extreme values in high-dimensional financial time series is challenging because extremes are sparse and locally extreme observations are not necessarily extreme relative to their full marginal distribution. To address this, we introduce a time-dependent network Hüs

Can contagion be inferred from aggregated default data? We study this as a problem of identifiability, asking whether contagion generates components in default count distributions that remain distinct from those induced by macroeconomic fluctuations. We compare three dependence structures: cumulativ

Money-back guarantees (MBGs) are features of pooled retirement income products that address bequest concerns by ensuring the initial premium is returned through lifetime payments or, upon early death, as a death benefit to the estate. This paper studies optimal retirement decumulation in an individu

We introduce a novel model for time-varying, asymmetric, tail-dependent copulas in high dimensions that incorporates both spectral dynamics and regularization. The dynamics of the dependence matrix’ eigenvalues are modeled in a score-driven way, while biases in the unconditional eigenvalue spectrum

Following several episodes of financial market turmoil in recent decades, changes in systemic risk have drawn growing attention. Therefore, we propose surveillance schemes for systemic risk, which allow to detect misspecified systemic risk forecasts in an “online” fashion. This enables daily monitor

This article provides a list of counterexamples, where some of the popular fx option interpolations break down. Interpolation of FX option prices (or equivalently volatilities), is key to risk-manage not only vanilla FX option books, but also more exotic derivatives which are typically valued with l

The efficient and effective construction of portfolios that adhere to real-world constraints is a challenging optimization task in finance. We investigate a concrete representation of the problem with a focus on design proposals of an Exchange Traded Fund. We evaluate the sampling-based CVaR Variati

This paper develops a Bayesian Generalised Pareto Regression (GPR) model to forecast extreme losses in Indian equity markets, with a focus on the Nifty 50 index. Extreme negative returns, though rare, can cause significant financial disruption, and accurate modelling of such events is essential for

Recovery rate prediction plays a pivotal role in bond investment strategies by enhancing risk assessment, optimizing portfolio allocation, improving pricing accuracy, and supporting effective credit risk management. However, accurate forecasting remains challenging due to complex nonlinear dependenc

In the financial field, precise risk assessment tools are essential for decision-making. Recent studies have challenged the notion that traditional network loss functions like Mean Square Error (MSE) are adequate, especially under extreme risk conditions that can lead to significant losses during ma

Volatility forecasting is essential for risk management and decision-making in financial markets. Traditional models like Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) effectively capture volatility clustering but often fail to model complex, non-linear interdependencies between

The recent work of Horikawa and Nakagawa (2024) claims that under a complete market admitting statistical arbitrage, the difference between the hedging position provided by deep hedging and that of the replicating portfolio is a statistical arbitrage. This raises concerns as it entails that deep hed

This paper investigates the cryptocurrency network of the FTX exchange during the collapse of its native token, FTT, to understand how network structures adapt to significant financial disruptions, by exploiting vertex centrality measures. Using proprietary data on the transactional relationships be

Networks of financial exposures are the key propagators of risk and distress among banks, but their empirical structure is not publicly available because of confidentiality. This limitation has triggered the development of methods of network reconstruction from partial, aggregate information. Unfort

A semi-parametric joint Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting framework employing multiple realized measures is developed. The proposed framework extends the realized exponential GARCH model to be semi-parametrically estimated, via a joint loss function, whilst extending existi

In the financial services industry, forecasting the risk factor distribution conditional on the history and the current market environment is the key to market risk modeling in general and value at risk (VaR) model in particular. As one of the most widely adopted VaR models in commercial banks, Hist

We propose a discrete-time econometric model that combines autoregressive filters with factor regressions to predict stock returns for portfolio optimisation purposes. In particular, we test both robust linear regressions and general additive models on two different investment universes composed of