Risk Management & Tail Risk

We have developed a novel risk management measure called the concentration risk indicator (CRI). The CRI has been created to address drawbacks with prevailing methodologies and to supplement existing methods. Modified and adapted from the Herfindahl-Hirschman (HH) index, the CRI can give a single nu

In this paper, we discuss the worst-case of distortion riskmetrics for general distributions when only partial information (mean and variance) is known. This result is applicable to general class of distortion risk measures and variability measures. Furthermore, we also consider worst-case of weight

Risk and utility functionals are fundamental building blocks in economics and finance. In this paper we investigate under which conditions a risk or utility functional is sensitive to the accumulation of losses in the sense that any sufficiently large multiple of a position that exposes an agent to

This study explores the innovative use of Large Language Models (LLMs) as analytical tools for interpreting complex financial regulations. The primary objective is to design effective prompts that guide LLMs in distilling verbose and intricate regulatory texts, such as the Basel III capital requirem

This paper investigates the impact of distributional uncertainty on key risk measures under the partial knowledge of underlying distributions characterized by their first two moments and shape information (specifically symmetry and/or unimodality). We first employ probability inequalities to establi

By integrating survival analysis, machine learning algorithms, and economic interpretation, this research examines the temporal dynamics associated with attaining a 5 percent rise in purchasing power parity-adjusted GDP per capita over a period of 120 months (2013-2022). A comparative investigation

In this paper we analyze the resilience of a network of banks to joint price fluctuations of the external assets in which they have shared exposures, and evaluate the worst-case effects of the possible default contagion. Indeed, when the prices of certain external assets either decrease or increase,

In Mozambique there is no evidence of a bankruptcy prediction model developed in the national economic context, yet, back in 2016, the national banking sector suffered a financial shock that resulted in Mozambique Central Bank intervention in two banks (Moza Banco, S.A. and Nosso Banco, S.A.). This

Systemic risk is a rapidly developing area of research. Classical financial models often do not adequately reflect the phenomena of bubbles, crises, and transitions between them during credit cycles. To study very improbable events, systemic risk methodologies utilise advanced mathematical and compu

We theorize the financial health of a company and the risk of its default. A company is financially healthy as long as its equilibrium in the financial system is maintained, which depends on the cost attributable to the probability that equilibrium may decay. The estimate of that probability is base

In portfolio compression, market participants (banks, organizations, companies, financial agents) sign contracts, creating liabilities between each other, which increases the systemic risk. Large, dense markets commonly can be compressed by reducing obligations without lowering the net notional of e

We study a problem of optimal allocation in a discrete-time multi-period pure-exchange economy, where agents have preferences over stochastic endowment processes that are represented by strongly time-consistent dynamic risk measures. We introduce the notion of dynamic Pareto-optimal allocation proce

This paper develops a unified framework for the robustification of risk measures beyond the classical convex and cash-additive setting. We consider general risk measures on Lp spaces and construct their robust counterparts through families of uncertainty sets that capture ambiguity. Two complementar

Whenever dealing with horizons of different times scales, risk evaluation of losses may incur in both interest rate uncertainty and horizon risk as introduced in [11]. With the goal to capture both effects, we work with cash subadditive fully-dynamic risk measures. In this work we consider such meas

This paper assumes a robust stochastic model where a set $\mathcal{P}$ of probability measures replaces the single probability measure of dominated models. We introduce and study $\mathcal{P}$-sensitive functions defined on robust function spaces of random variables. We show that $\mathcal{P}$-sensi

We study contagion and systemic risk in sparse financial networks with balance-sheet interactions on a directed random graph. Each institution has homogeneous liabilities and equity, and exposures along outgoing edges are split equally across counterparties. A linear fraction of institutions have ze

The Lambda Value-at-Risk (Lambda-VaR) is a generalization of the Value-at-Risk (VaR), which has been actively studied in quantitative finance. Over the past two decades, the Expected Shortfall (ES) has become one of the most important risk measures alongside VaR because of its various desirable prop

We investigate the extremal aggregation behavior of Value-at-Risk (VaR) – that is, its additivity properties across all probability levels – for sums of one-sided random variables. For risks supported on ([0,\infty)), we show that VaR sub-additivity is impossible except in the degenerate case of

In this paper, we provide extended convolution bounds for the Fréchet problem and discuss related implications in quantitative risk management. First, we establish a new form of inequality for the Range-Value-at-Risk (RVaR). Based on this inequality, we obtain bounds for robust risk aggregation with

We study randomly distorted Choquet integrals with respect to a capacity c on a measurable space (Ω,F), where the capacity c is distorted by a G-measurable random distortion function (with G a sub-σ-algebra of F). We establish some fundamental properties, including the comonotonic additivity of thes