Volatility is the most forecastable quantity in finance — unlike returns, it clusters, mean-reverts, and leaves a measurable footprint in high-frequency data. This hub collects the modeling lineage from GARCH through realized volatility built on intraday data, to rough volatility and the modern deep-learning forecasters, along with VIX and variance-risk-premium research.
Because volatility forecasting has real benchmarks, rigor is easier to judge here than elsewhere: a serious paper compares against HAR-RV (the stubborn workhorse baseline) on out-of-sample data, not just against its own ablations. Watch also for the evaluation-loss trap — rankings of volatility models flip depending on whether you score them with MSE, QLIKE, or economic value in an options or risk-targeting strategy, and good papers say so explicitly.
Related hubs: Options & Derivatives, Risk Management, Machine Learning for Forecasting.
This dissertation develops and justifies a novel method for deriving approximate formulas to estimate two parameters in stochastic volatility diffusion models with exponentially-affine characteristic functions and single- or two-factor variance. These formulas aim to improve the accuracy of option p
Accurate option pricing is essential for effective trading and risk management in financial markets, yet it remains challenging due to market volatility and the limitations of traditional models like Black-Scholes. In this paper, we investigate the application of the Informer neural network for opti
We study nearly unstable bivariate cumulative heavy-tailed INAR($\infty$) processes and show that, under a one-factor parameterization and a suitable scaling, they converge to the rough Heston model. This yields a discrete-time microstructural route to the joint price-variance dynamics and gives exp
We reconcile rough volatility models and jump models using a class of reversionary Heston models with fast mean reversions and large vol-of-vols. Starting from hyper-rough Heston models with a Hurst index $H \in (-1/2,1/2)$, we derive a Markovian approximating class of one dimensional reversionary H
In this paper, we study the Euler–Maruyama scheme for a particle method to approximate the McKean–Vlasov dynamics of calibrated local-stochastic volatility (LSV) models. Given the open question of well-posedness of the original problem, we work with regularised coefficients and prove that under ce
In the effort to achieve carbon neutrality through a decentralized electricity market, accurate short-term load forecasting at low aggregation levels has become increasingly crucial for various market participants’ strategies. Accurate probabilistic forecasts at low aggregation levels can improve pe
This paper develops a decomposition of standard Risk Contribution (RC) into two economically interpretable components: inherent risk and correlation risk. Using a leave-one-out representation, each position’s RC separates into a term reflecting its own volatility contribution independent of the port
Option prices encode the market’s collective outlook through implied density and implied volatility. An explicit link between implied density and implied volatility translates the risk-neutrality of the former into conditions on the latter to rule out static arbitrage. Despite earlier recognition of
Financial markets exhibit temporal organization that is not fully captured by volatility measures or linear correlation structure. We study a null validated topological approach for quantifying market complexity and apply it to Bitcoin daily log returns. The analysis uses the $L^1$ norm of persisten
We study reinforcement learning (RL) on volatility surfaces through the lens of Scientific AI. We ask whether axiomatic no-arbitrage laws, imposed as soft penalties on a learned world model, can reliably align high-capacity RL agents, or mainly create Goodhart-style incentives to exploit model error
The lifted Heston model is a stochastic volatility model emerging as a Markovian lift of the rough Heston model and the class of rough volatility processes. The model encodes the path dependency of volatility on a set of N square-root state processes driven by a common stochastic factor. While the s
This paper addresses the challenges of pricing exotic options and structured products, which traditional models often fail to handle due to their inability to capture real-world market phenomena like fat-tailed distributions and volatility clustering. We introduce a Diffusion-Conditional Probability
The emerging cryptocurrency market presents unique challenges for investment due to its unregulated nature and inherent volatility. However, collective price movements can be explored to maximise profits with minimal risk using investment portfolios. In this paper, we develop a technical framework t
This article introduces a Hype-Adjusted Probability Measure in the context of a new Natural Language Processing (NLP) approach for stock return and volatility forecasting. A novel sentiment score equation is proposed to represent the impact of intraday news on forecasting next-period stock return an
Fourier pricing methods such as the Carr-Madan formula or the COS method are classic tools for pricing European options for advanced models such as the Heston model. These methods require tuning parameters such as a damping factor, a truncation range, a number of terms, etc. Estimating these tuning
This article presents a generic hybrid numerical method to price a wide range of options on one or several assets, as well as assets with stochastic drift or volatility. In particular for equity and interest rate hybrid with local volatility.
The strong relative arbitrage problem in Stochastic Portfolio Theory seeks an investment strategy that almost surely outperforms a benchmark portfolio at the end of a given time horizon. The highest relative return in relative arbitrage opportunities is characterized by the smallest nonnegative cont
Maintaining a balance between returns and volatility is a common strategy for portfolio diversification, whether investing in traditional equities or digital assets like cryptocurrencies. One approach for diversification is the application of community detection or clustering, using a network repres
This paper introduces a trade ordering rule that aims to reduce intra-block price volatility in Automated Market Maker (AMM) powered decentralized exchanges. The ordering rule introduced here, Clever Look-ahead Volatility Reduction (CLVR), operates under the (common) framework in decentralized finan
We present weak approximations schemes of any order for the Heston model that are obtained by using the method developed by Alfonsi and Bally (2021). This method consists in combining approximation schemes calculated on different random grids to increase the order of convergence. We apply this metho